瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级的FDA法评价  

FDA Method Used in Risk Assessment of Gas-Bearing Tunnel During Construction

作　　者：熊建明[1] 陈沅江[2] 刘波[1] 洪涛[2] XIONG Jianming CHEN Yuanjiang LIU Bo HONG Tao(School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083 ,P. R. China School of Resources ＆ Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan,P. R. China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学力学与建筑工程学院,北京100083 [2]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第2期17-23,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：交通部西部交通科技计划项目(200831878518)

摘　　要：在综合分析国内外瓦斯隧道施工事故的基础上,确立了地层岩性、地质结构、煤层厚度、隧道埋深及水文地质条件等5类指标为影响瓦斯隧道施工期风险的关键主因素,由此将瓦斯隧道施工期风险划分为5个等级;然后,建立了瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级评价的FDA法评价体系及其正规化评价流程,并采用23个瓦斯隧道先验风险样本对其进行学习和回判,获得了相应的风险判别函数;最后,对我国20个瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级进行了验证性评价,所得结果和实际相符。FDA法具有稳健可靠的泛化评价计算能力,用于安全评价时误判率低、综合判别能力强,可在同类复杂系统工程施工期风险评价中推广应用。Based on a comprehensive analysis of the causes to accidents in gas-bearing tunnel works, five important indicators were determined to be main risks, which are the stratum lithology, the geological structure, the coal seam thickness, the depth of tunnel and the hydrogeological condition and which would have a great effect on the construction risk of the gas-bearing tunnel. According to the five indicators＇values, the risks were classified into five different levels during gas-bearing tunnel works; And then a Fisher Discrimination Analysis model and its regularization evaluation procedure were built for risk level assessment during tunneling works. 23 previous gas-bearing tunnel risk samples were studied and reviewed and corresponding risk classification function was gained. Finally the risk level of 20 gas-bearing tunnels were verified with test and the test results coincide with reality. FDA method has the robust and reliable generalized eValuation computing capacity with low error rate of judgment in safety assessment and high general judgment capacity thus it can be extensively applied in risk assessment during construction of complicated engineering system of same type.

关 键 词：隧道工程 瓦斯隧道 施工期 风险评价 FDA法 

分 类 号：U455[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]