中国存在赤字率与M2/GDP的双重风险吗——基于三维非线性动态系统(D^3NLDS)模型的研究  

Do Chinese Deficit Ratio and M2/GDP have Double Risk:Research Based on 3D Nonlinear Dynamic System(D^3NLDS) Model

作　　者：周明明[1] 赵果庆[1] 罗亚兰[2] Zhou Mingrning Zhao Guoqing Luo Yalan(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221,China School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072, China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学,昆明650221 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2017年第1期14-25,共12页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71563059)

摘　　要：赤字率超过3%和M2/GDP超过2是否给中国的经济运行带来双重风险?这是进入新常态后如何保持6.5%的经济增速所必须搞清楚的一个问题。研究发现:现行经济形势下,中国的赤字率与M2/GDP的均衡值分别为6.31%和2.16,两者都高于实际值:3.48%和2.05,中国当前赤字率与M2/GDP不存在风险。进一步研究发现,只有实施持续的积极财政政策才会有效地持续降低中国赤字率与M2/GDP的均衡水平,短期政策作用甚微;中国要保住现阶段经济增长目标,就应实施以积极财政政策为主,紧缩性货币政策为辅的宏观调控制政策。The question whether China＇s economy will be faced with double risk when the level of M2/GDP exceeds 2% and deficit ratio exceeds 3% should be addressed as it is very im- portant for the issue of keeping China economy growing at a rate of 6.5% after the ＂new nor- mal＂. The present study finds that the equilibrium level of Chinese deficit ratio and M2/GDP are 6.31% and 2.16 respectively,higher than real value ,3.48% and 2.05 respectively. Therefore, Chinese current deficit ratio and M2/GDP are at no risk. Further research shows that only persis- tent positive fiscal policy can help to lower equilibrium level of Chinese deficit ratio and M2/GDP effectively, while temporary policy has little effect. At present stage, in order to keep the growth rate at target value, China should stick to positive fiscal policy supplemented by tight money poli- cy.

关 键 词：赤字率 M2/GDP 财政政策 货币政策 非线性动态系统 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]