中国石油消费影响效应的区域差异化研究  

A Study on Regional Difference in Effect of Factors on Oil Consumption in China

作　　者：李宏勋[1] 陈银凤 Li Hongxun Chen Yinfeng(School of Economies and Management ,China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 26658)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《中外能源》2017年第2期13-20,共8页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:12BJY075);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金中国石油大学科研创新团队计划科技专项(编号15CX08012A)资助

摘　　要：以我国31个省市自治区2005~2014年度的相关数据为依据,在分析经济增长、产业结构、化石能耗结构、民用汽车拥有量、能源强度、能源禀赋与石油消费之间关系的基础上,运用Eviews构建东北、东部、中部、西部四大经济区域面板数据模型,定量研究石油消费影响效应的区域化差异,并进行横向和纵向对比分析。结果表明:从长期协整关系来看,整体而言,民用汽车拥有量、产业结构、经济增长、能源强度、能源禀赋、化石能耗结构对石油消费的影响效应依次减弱;分区域来看,影响因素与石油消费的关系较为密切,且各个经济区域影响效应存在显著性差异;从短期来看,石油消费产生波动的原因一方面是由区域内影响因素引起;另一方面是由石油消费偏离长期均衡所引起,且东北地区偏离长期均衡的调整力度较强。最后,根据计量结果提出四大经济区域石油消费的相关政策建议。Based on the related data for 31 provinces and autonomous regions of the country between 2005 and 2014 as well as an analysis of the relationship between economic growth,industrial structure,fossil fuel energy mix,number of civilian vehicles,energy intensity,energy endowment and oil consumption,researchers developed a panel data model for four major economic regions（northeast China,east China,central China and west China） using Eviews to quantify regional differences in the effect of factors on oil consumption and conduct lat-eral and longitudinal comparison.The results show ：As far as long-term co-integration relationship is concerned,the effects of number of civilian vehicles,industrial structure,economic growth,energy intensity,energy endowment and fossil fuel energy mix on oil consumption decrease in the order in which these factors ap-peared;regionally,the influencing factors have close relationships with oil consumption and there are significant differences in the effect of these factors between different regions;and,in the short term,the reasons for the fluctuations in oil consumption are,on the one hand,inter-region influencing factors and the deviation of oil consumption from a long-term balance on the other hand（and northeast China has made strong adjustments to such deviation）.Lastly,these researchers proposed some policies relating to oil consumption in the above four major economic regions.

关 键 词：石油消费 面板数据模型 影响效应 区域差异 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F224