Simultaneity Problem of Exports and Economic Growth： A Panel Data Analysis of the European Union  

作　　者：Seham H. Negem 

机构地区：[1]Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt

出　　处：《China-USA Business Review》2016年第12期577-601,共25页美中经济评论（英文版）

摘　　要：This paper focuses on the export-growth simultaneity problem. It attempts to investigate whether exports result in and/or from economic growth. To solve the simultaneity problem in the economic growth equation, the estimates are obtained using the simultaneous equations model; considering the direct and indirect effect through exports growth. A two-equation simultaneous equations model, SEM, of two endogenous variables, the real output, representing the economic growth, and exports growth, is developed to deal with the endogeneity problem. The appropriate tests and the estimation of the regression results are obtained using Give Win, Pc-Give. The regression analysis using panel data starts by testing for unit root for each variable included. Then the mentioned model is estimated using panel data for 28 countries as full sample and for the richest group, seven countries, of the EU. The panel data cover the period 2000-2014. For full sample and the richest group, the three-stage least squares （3SLS） technique is used to estimate the regression. The findings of this paper indicate that the effect of exports growth on economic growth does not seem to differ in the two groups. The positive feedback, bi-directional, relationship between exports growth and economic growth exists; supporting both Exports Led Growth （ELG） and Growth Led Exports （GEL） arguments in the EU economies. This finding is in line with the theoretical argument of the ability of the economic unions to benefit from the international trade. Export duties, for both full sample and the richest group, are indirectly negatively associated with economic growth. So do the tariffs of the trading partners. However, the terms of trade, indirectly and positively affected the economic growth via their direct influence on exports growth.

关 键 词：SEM ELG GLE EU endogeneity problem order and rank conditions 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]