售电放开政策下发电商售电策略与交易谈判优化模型  

Electricity Sale Strategy and Trade Negotiation Optimization Model for Power Generator under Electricity Sale Liberalization Policy

作　　者：李欢欢[1] 张晨[2] 吴静[1] 张予燮 谭忠富[1] LI Huanhuan ZHANG Chen WU Jing ZHANG Yuxie TAN Zhongfu(North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,北京市102206 [2]国网能源研究院,北京市102209

出　　处：《电力建设》2017年第3期123-129,共7页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71573084)~~

摘　　要：在售电侧放开的政策背景下分析未来发售双方的主要交易模式,并以"多对一"交易模式为研究对象,以发电商效益最大化为目标,结合火电机组发电约束构建发电商利益优化模型。在此基础上利用平均对手法与静态贝叶斯纳什均衡理论建立发电商报价策略模型。算例结果显示,当合同交易电量达到发电商总出力的72.91%时,发电商利益达到极值,同时发电商对于售电商购电价预估值与对平均对手概率分布的推断对最后的报价和期望收益均产生影响。This paper analyses the main trading modes in the future between the generation side and the retail side under the policy background of releasing in the retail side. Taking the＂multi-to-one＂trading model as the object,and maximizing the benefits of the generators as the goal,this paper constructs an optimization model for the generation party under thermal power generating power constraints. Based on the model,this paper uses the average method and the static Bias Nash equilibrium theory to establish a pricing strategy model of generators. The simulation results showthat when the contract volume reaches 72. 91% of the total output of generators, the generators＇ benefits will reach the maximum. Power generators＇ pre-estimations to the price that electricity purchasers may come up and their deduction of the average probability distribution of competitors will influence both the final price and the expected revenue.

关 键 词：电力改革 电力市场 交易谈判 报价策略 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]