两岸汇率对两岸贸易的影响——后ECFA时代的SVAR分析  

The Impact of the Exchange Rate between RMB & NTD on the Cross-Strait Trade——An Empirical Analysis by SVAR in the Post-ECFA Era

作　　者：胡文骏[1] 许焕天 Hu Wenjun Xu Huantian

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2017年第1期24-34,共11页Taiwan Research Journal

摘　　要：由于人民币与新台币之间的套算汇率不能真实有效地反映两岸贸易的变动情况,加之两岸贸易的自由化程度不够等原因,两岸汇率波动对两岸贸易的影响机制表现出了不同于传统理论预期的特征。本文利用SVAR模型分析了后ECFA时代两岸汇率对两岸贸易的影响,结果表明:在长期,两岸汇率与大陆对台湾的出口贸易之间、大陆对台湾的出口贸易与大陆对台湾的进口贸易之间均存在着稳定的相互影响关系;在短期,两岸汇率是两岸贸易的单向Granger原因,两岸汇率的波动会从整体上抑制两岸贸易的发展,且对大陆对台湾出口贸易的抑制作用更加持久。此外,大陆对台湾的出口贸易能有效影响大陆对台湾的进口贸易,而大陆对台湾的进口贸易不能有效影响大陆对台湾的出口贸易。基于此,陆台双方应建立健全两岸汇率稳定机制,进一步推动两岸贸易自由化,逐步将人民币作为两岸贸易的结算货币并适时在台湾建立清算型人民币离岸中心,从而推动两岸经济的长足发展。Due to the failure of the cross rate of exchange between RMB and NTD to reflect the real fluctuations of the cross-Strait trade and the insufficient liberalization of trade on both sides, the influence mechanism caused by the fluctuations features a distinct characteristic different from the expectancy of the traditional theory. By using Structural Vector Auto-Regres- sion （SVAR） model, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the impact of the fluctuations of the exchange rate on the cross- Strait trade in the post ECFA era. The findings indicate that in the long term, there exist the stable interaction relationship be- tween the exchange rate and the export from mainland to Taiwan and the relationship between the export from mainland to Tai- wan and the import from Taiwan to mainland. While in the short term, as the exchange rate is the one-way Granger causality of the trade between the two sides, the fluctuations of the rate will inhibit the development of the trade as a whole, and the in- habitation of the export trade from mainland to Taiwan will remain to be more lasting. In addition, the export from mainland to Taiwan can have an effective impact on the import from Taiwan to mainland, whereas the mainland to Taiwan＇s import trade cannot effectively influence on the export trade to Taiwan. Therefore, it＇s of vital significance for both sides to build up and im- prove an exchange rate stability mechanism, further facilitate the liberalization of the cross-Strait trade, gradually promote RMB as the trade settlement currency and set up a liquidation type of offshore RMB center in Taiwan, so as to accelerate the rapid development of the cross-Strait development.

关 键 词：两岸汇率 两岸贸易 SVAR 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F727