汇率与资本流动——寻找金融市场风险传导的逻辑  

The Exchange Rate and Capital Flows——In Search of the Logic Behind Financial Market Risk Transmission

作　　者：李超[1] 宫飞[1] 朱洵[1] 侯劲羽 孙欧[1] 

机构地区：[1]华泰证券研究所

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2017年第1期18-30,共13页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：美元周期不仅对主要货币汇率形成冲击,其波动更直接影响全球资本流动性和配置偏好。在本轮美元升值周期中,随着特朗普新政带来美国经济和通胀预期上行,美元再度走强,新兴市场将再度面临严峻考验。人民币汇率取决于中美经济基本面及预期的此消彼长,本文分析了由外汇传导至债市和股市的风险联动路径,并分别就相关影响逻辑提出积极应对的策略。The US dollar has not only had an impact on the exchange rates of major currencies; its volatility has had a direct impact on global liquidity and asset allocations. With the policies of the Trump administration likely to boost US economic growth and add to inflationary expectations, the dollar is once again gaining ground. As a result, emerging markets can be expected to see renewed pressure. This paper analyzes the linkage of risk across a range of markets from foreign exchange to stocks and bonds and offers suggestions on possible strategies to counter the potential impact on the nation＇s currency.

关 键 词：股市 汇率 债市 美元周期 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F837.12