亚太区域经济一体化与两岸共同参与策略选择  

Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration and the Strategic Choice of Joint Participation for Cross-Straits

作　　者：郑学党[1,2] 华晓红[3] 庄芮[3] ZHENG Xue-dang HUA Xiao-hong ZHUANG Rui(Center for International Economic and Technological Cooperation, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beijing, China, 100846 Electronics ＆ information Industry Sub-council, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, Beijing, China, 100846 Institute of International Economy, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China, 100029)

机构地区：[1]工业和信息化部国际经济技术合作中心,北京100846 [2]中国国际贸易促进委员会电子信息行业分会,北京100846 [3]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《宁夏社会科学》2017年第2期122-126,共5页NingXia Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"亚太主要区域贸易协定的生产网络效应与中国对策研究"(项目编号:14BGJ046);教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目"全球价值链视角下的两岸产业合作研究"(项目编号:13YJAGAT001)

摘　　要：亚太区域经济合作是世界经济全球化的重要组成部分,以FTA为代表的经济一体化是未来亚太区域经济合作发展的主流和方向。中国大陆与台湾同处亚太生产网络的关键环节,但相比中国大陆,台湾FTA进展缓慢,基本被排除在亚太主要FTA之外。运用GTAP模型,以RCEP和中日韩FTA为例,模拟分析了亚太两大FTA贸易自由化对两岸经济的影响。研究发现,包括台湾在内的非成员,无论GDP增长、社会福利还是贸易条件等,均受到两大FTA不同程度的负面影响,尤其是两大FTA同时实现贸易自由化,台湾受损程度更为严重。在当前两岸互信不足情况下,只有联合中国大陆共同参与亚太区域经济合作,才是台湾拓展"国际经济空间"和避免被"边缘化"的根本出路。The Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation is an important part of the globalization of the world economy, and the eco- nomic integration represented by the FrA is the direction and mainstream of the regional economic cooperation. China's Mainland and Taiwan are the key link in the Asia-Pacific production network. However, compared to China's Mainland, Taiwan FTA progress is rela- tively slow and excluded from the main Asia-Pacific FTA. Using the GTAP model, the paper makes an analysis of the impacts of RCEP and CJKFrA on trade liberalization. The results show that non-member countries and regions, including Taiwan, suffer from varying degrees of GDP growth, social welfare, and terms of trade, especially the trade liberalization of the two major FTAs, and Taiwan＇ s damage is even more serious. At present, there is a serious lack of mutual-trust of Cross-straits, Taiwan should join hands with Main- land China to participate in the Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation, which is the fundamental way for Taiwan to expand its＂in- ternational economic space＇and avoid＂marginalization＂.

关 键 词：两岸 RCEP 中日韩FTA 经济效应 共同参与 

分 类 号：F752.4[经济管理—国际贸易]