民航维修人员习惯性违章行为的SD建模研究  

A system dynamics approach to modeling the maintenance workers' habitual violations in the civil aviation service practice

作　　者：王永刚[1] 李苗[1] 刘凯凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2017年第1期204-209,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122015B001);2015年中国民用航空局民航科技项目(mhrd003)

摘　　要：掌握习惯性违章行为形成过程中的反馈机制和发展规律可以为消除习惯性违章行为提供理论依据。基于系统动力学(SD)理论,建立了民航机务维修人员习惯性违章行为的动态模型,利用VENSIM软件模拟仿真。结果表明,惩罚力度从第1等级(惩罚力度由小到大分别对应1~10等级)到第6等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次减小,从第6等级到第10等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次增加。此外习惯性违章行为活跃水平对工作单卡的合理程度敏感性最强,组织应优先提高工作单卡的合理程度。The paper presents a dynamic model for the civil aviation maintenance personnel＇s habitual violations based on the system dynamics theory（SD）.It is generally acknowledged that the habitual violation has its own starting causes in the formation process of such poor habits.Knowing the feedback mechanism and its development tendency can help to find its own theoretical foundation for eliminating such habits.The results of the VENSIM software simulation indicate that the frequency of such habitual violations increases more when the organizational goal is lowered.And more governance of such habitual violations is not favorable for reducing them.For example,when the punishment rule has increased from grade 1 to grade 6（the grades of the punishment increase progressively in accordance with the grades from 1-10）,it would be possible for the frequency of habitual violations tends to be in turn reduced.When the punishment grade has increased progressively from grade 6 to grade 10,the frequency of habitual violations would increase.Therefore,the organization is suggested to control the range of punishment from the grade 1 to6.Besides,we have also done the sensitivity analysis that the intentional habitual violation is affected by the following four factors：the comfort degree of the working environment,the rationality of the working card,the validity of the safety training and the work intensity.It can be seen that the key influential factor is to change or reform the rationality of the work card for controlling the active effects of habitual violations under the same condition,which is followed by the work environment,the validity of safety training and the working task intensity.Therefore,first of all,it is necessary to improve the rationality of the working card through the reform of the organization,and then to improve the degree of work environment,the validity of the safety training so as to lower the intensity of the workload in the end.Therefore,we have verifies the potentiality of the SD model for resear

关 键 词：安全工程 习惯性违章行为 安全行为科学 系统动力学(SD) 模拟仿真 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]