考虑双重预期的云模型决策  

Decision making method for cloud model considering dual aspirations

作　　者：林松[1] 汪军[1] 朱建军[1] 张世涛[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]安徽工业大学数理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243002

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2017年第4期821-828,共8页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171112;71401064;71502073);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD049);教育部人文社科基金(14YJC630120)资助课题

摘　　要：针对指标值为云模型且考虑目标预期和增长预期的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于前景理论的决策方法。提出了增长预期和目标预期的刻画方法,针对以云模型形式给出的属性评价值和双预期值建立了相似性度量方法,根据累积前景理论和云模型相似度定义了综合前景价值函数,最后根据方案之间的综合前景值总体差异最大化为目标建立权重寻优模型;案例说明了方法应用步骤和可行性。A method based on the prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making problem in which the attributes are given by the cloud model and target aspiration and growth aspiration are con- sidered. Target aspiration and growth aspiration are denoted first, the similarity measurement method is estab- lished for the attribute value and the dual aspirations which are given by the cloud model. The future value func- tion is defined based on the cumulative prospect theory and cloud model similarity, and the weight optimization model is established based on the maximum comprehensive prospect value difference among the alternatives. The example illustrates the application and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：云模型 前景理论 双重预期 相似度 方案排序 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]