农业转移人口市民化的博弈分析  

A Game Theory Analysis of Rural Migrant Citizenization

作　　者：辛波[1] 刘浩[1] 于淑俐[2] Xin Bo Liu Hao Yu shuli(School of Finance, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai 264005, China School of business administration, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai 264005, China)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院金融学院,山东烟台264005 [2]山东工商学院工商管理学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2017年第2期65-71,共7页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目"山东省新型城镇化的溢出效应;路径选择与政策支持研究"(15CJJJ19)

摘　　要：运用两阶段完全信息动态博弈的方法,通过构建四个利益主体的效用函数,研究了在各主体不同的策略选择下,农业转移人口市民化进程滞后的原因,并根据条件的变化预测了农业转移人口市民化的未来趋势。结果发现:随着时间的推移和形势的变化,农业转移人口的市民化状况呈现阶段性特征;特别是我国经济进入新常态以来,各利益主体的策略选择发生了深刻变化,即在旧的城镇化发展模式下,政府、厂商、城镇居民都倾向于忽视农业转移人口市民化,农业转移人口也没有能力实现市民化;在新常态下,农业转移人口更有可能实现市民化。By adopting two-stage complete information dynamic game method and establishing a utility function for the four interest subjects, this paper studies the reasons lation citizenization under different strategy choices by each for detention in the process of agricultural transfer popu- subject, and forecasts the future tendency in agricultural transfer population citizenization based on changing conditions. The results show that agricultural transfer population citizenization presents stage characteristics which vary as time goes by and the situation changes ; the strategic choice by each interest subject has undergone profound changes especially since China economy entered the new mormal, i.e, under the old urbanization development mode, government, manufacturers and urban residents tend to ignore agricultural transfer population citizenization while agricultural transfer population has no ability to realize citizenization; and that agricultural transfer population is more likely to get citizenizd under the new normal

关 键 词：农业转移人口 市民化 博弈 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]