火灾中人员疏散羊群行为模拟研究  

Simulation analysis of herd behavior in fire evacuation

作　　者：李大燕[1,2,3] 朱国庆[1,2,3] 朱辉[1,2,3] 姜晓慧[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学煤矿瓦斯与火灾防治教育部重点实验室,江苏徐州221116 [3]中国矿业大学消防工程研究所,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2017年第2期182-184,189,共4页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20131117);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：介绍社会影响论、社会证明论,并基于两种理论解释羊群行为的形成机理。以某电影院为例,采用STEPS建立疏散模型,通过改变出现羊群行为人数的比例和安全出口的宽度模拟得到不同的疏散时间,研究羊群行为对疏散的影响。模拟结果表明,当较小比例(0~20%)的人员出现羊群行为时,促进人员疏散;当较大比例(>20%)的人员出现羊群行为时,减缓人员疏散;随着安全出口宽度的减小,羊群行为对疏散时间的影响逐渐增大。羊群行为对疏散的消极作用远大于积极作用,且对于较窄的出口消极作用更加明显。The social impact theory and the social proof theory were introduced, and the formation mechanism of herd behavior is explained based on those two theories. Taking a cinema as example, a model was established by STEPS. By changing the proportion of herd behavior in the crowd and the width of the safe exit, the influence of herd behavior on the evacuation was researched. Simulation results showed that it will promote per- sonnel evacuation when the proportion of herd behavior is rela- tively small （ 0 ~ 20 %）, slow down the personnel evacuation when there is a large proportion （〉20%） of herd behavior. With the reducing of width of exit, there is more influence of herd behavior on evacuation. Herd behavior has more negative than positive effect on evacuation, and the negative effect on the more narrow export is more obvious.

关 键 词：羊群行为 疏散 社会影响论 社会证明论 数值模拟 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU242.2[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]