基于Monte Carlo模拟的项目投资决策分析  

Analysis of Project Investment Decision based on Carlo Monte Simulation

作　　者：姜向阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院工商管理学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2017年第3期14-17,共4页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：由于在投资项目可行性研究中,基础数据一般通过估算和预测获得,可是项目一旦上马,其实际数据可能与预测结果存在比较大的出入,给项目带来风险。文章基于Monte Carlo模拟方法,对项目投资决策的不确定性评价进行了研究,分析了影响项目投资决策的不确定性因素,以及项目可行性分析中常用的盈亏平衡法、敏感性分析法、概率分析法等不确定性评价方法的缺陷。通过采用Monte Carlo模拟方法,针对影响项目的不确定性因素的变化规律进行模拟仿真分析,较好地刻画项目的现实状况,通过数值计算得到项目经济效果评价指标值大小及其概率分布状况,揭示了投资项目的风险-收益情况,为投资者作出科学决策提供了思路。In the feasibility study of investment project, the basic data obtained by estimation and prediction, but once the project is launched, the actual data may be different with predicted results, It bring the risk to the project. The simulation method based on Monte Carlo, conducted a study on the evaluation of project investment decision-making uncertainty, analyzes the influence of project investment decision-making uncertainties, defects commonly used in the profit and loss balance method and sensitivity analysis method,probability analysis method and uncertainty evaluation methods and project feasibility analysis. By using Monte Carlo simulation method,the effect of variation of the uncertainty factors are simulated and analyzed, the reality of the situation better describe the project, the evaluation index of economic effect value and the distribution of probability by numerical calculation, reveals the risk investment project benefits, provides a way for investors to make scientific decisions.

关 键 词：技术创新 项目风险 风险分析 盈亏平衡 经济效果 投资决策 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]