四川春玉米气象干旱致灾因子危险性  

Meteorological drought-caused disaster risks for spring maize in Sichuan Province

作　　者：郭晓梅[1] 袁淑杰[1] 王劲松[2] 张碧[1] 罗雯[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,兰州730020

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第1期79-87,92,共10页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：干旱气象科学基金项目(IAM201304);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430206);成都信息工程大学科研基金项目(KYTZ201305);四川省软科学研究项目(2013ZR0081)

摘　　要：利用四川省1961-2014年147个地面气象站逐日观测资料与四川省春玉米观测资料,运用气象干旱对农业影响评估综合指数,建立四川省春玉米生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性模型,研究了四川省春玉米播种-出苗期、拔节-孕穗期、抽雄开花-吐丝期、乳熟-完熟期及全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性空间分布特征.结果表明:春玉米需水关键期发生特、重、中、轻概率的空间分布不同;春玉米抽雄开花-吐丝期气象干旱致灾因子危险性较大,拔节-孕穗期次之,播种-出苗期较小;春玉米全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性盆西北至资阳北部较高,高原西南部河谷地带次之,盆地西南部、凉山州东北部较低.Models for assessing disaster risks maize caused by meteorological drought for spring in different maize growing stages were established by using the 1961-2014 daily observation data from 147 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province and the observation data of Sichuan spring maize and by applying the evaluation index which can comprehensively evaluate the impact of meteorological drought on agriculture.Then the spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed of drought-caused disasters during maize＇s sowing to seedling stage,jointing to booting stage,tasseling to flowering stage,milk to full-ripening stage and whole growing stage.The results indicated that the spatial distribution of probability was different when extreme,severe,moderate and light drought occurred in the critical growth stages of spring maize.The meteorological drought-causing risk factors were higher in spring maize＇s tasseling to flowering stage,and the risk in the jointing to booting stage was second,and that in the sowing to seedling stage was lower.During the whole growing stage of spring maize,the risks from meteorological drought in the northwestern part of Sichuan Basin to the north of Ziyang was the highest,and lower at the river valley of the southwest western Sichuan Plateau,the risks in southwestern Sichuan Basin and northeastern Liangshan was the lowest.

关 键 词：春玉米 气象干旱对农业影响评估综合指数 气象干旱致灾因子 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]