区域雷电灾害风险评估模型与应用  

Regional Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment Model and Its Application

作　　者：曾金全[1] 冯真祯[1] 张烨方[1] 王颖波[1] 施宗强 

机构地区：[1]福建省防雷中心,福州350001 [2]福建省南靖县气象局,漳州363600

出　　处：《气象科技》2017年第1期179-183,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：福建省科技厅社会发展重点项目(2013Y0021);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2013LASW-B01)资助

摘　　要：在分析国内雷电灾害风险区划发展现状进行的基础上,从区域雷电灾害事前风险评估的角度出发,采用灾害评估的承灾体、致灾体模式,引入雷电风险、地域风险和承灾体风险作为评估指标,针对每个指标选取与其发生紧密度较高的参数作为2级评价标准,对区域雷电灾害风险进行基于事前致灾因子的区域雷电灾害风险评估研究,并以福建省为例,应用该模型进行了计算。结果表明,基于承灾体、致灾体模式的区域雷电灾害风险评估模型能较好地反应出区域雷电灾害发生的损失程度,对于行政区域范围的雷电灾害风险度区域与政府决策支持具有积极的指导意义。Based on the development situation of the current lightning disaster risk regionalization, the paper starts with the prior risk assessment of regional lightning disaster risk and uses the disaster bearing body and hazard body model to establish evaluation indicators, which contain lightning risk, regional risk and disasters. By this model, the parameters with higher degree of intimacy are selected to study the prior hazard assessment of regional lightning disaster risk. Taking Fujian Province as an example to apply the model, the results indicate that this model can reflect well the degree of loss in lightning disaster areas. It is of positive significance to the researches on regional lightning disaster risk and the support of decision making for regional governments.

关 键 词：雷电灾害风险 区域评估 层次分析法 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]