高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的适应需求——以甘南高原为例  

Adaptation needs of farmers to climate change in an ecologically vulnerable alpine region: take Gannan Plateau for example

作　　者：张钦[1] 赵雪雁[1] 王亚茹[1] 雒丽[1] 薛冰[2] ZHANG Qin ZHAO Xueyan WANG Yaru LUO Li XUE Bing(College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China Institute of Applied Ecdogy, Chinese Acadamy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《生态学报》2017年第5期1688-1698,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41361106);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0910);甘肃省高校基本科研业务费资助项目

摘　　要：气候变化对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著。明确农户对气候变化的适应需求,对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策、增强农户的气候变化适应能力非常重要。基于500份农户调查问卷,分析了甘南高原不同区域和不同生计方式农户对气候变化的适应需求,并利用二元logistic回归模型分析了影响农户适应需求的关键因素。结果表明:(1)在适应气候变化过程中,甘南高原农户对基础设施的需求最强烈,对信息和生产技术的需求次之;(2)不同区域农户对气候变化的适应需求存在差异。其中,纯牧区农户和农区农户对基础设施的需求均最强烈,半农半牧区农户对信息的需求最强烈;(3)不同生计方式农户对气候变化的适应需求也存在差异。其中,纯农户对信贷保险的需求最强烈,一兼户和二兼户均对基础设施的需求最强烈;(4)自然资本和物质资本是影响农户对生产技术需求的关键因素,自然资本和人力资本是影响农户对信息需求的关键因素,人力资本和金融资本是影响农户对基础设施需求的关键因素,自然资本、人力资本、金融资本、物质资本和社会资本均是影响农户对信贷保险需求的关键因素。提出了提升农户适应气候变化能力的政策建议。Abstract： The impacts of climate change on the people who serving the natural resources as a livelihood is particularly significant. To define the adaptation demands of farmers to climate change is very important to develop effectively adaptation policies for climate change, and to enhance the farmers＇ adaptability to climate change. This paper, based on 500 questionnaires, analysis of the adaptation demands of the different regions and different livelihood strategies of farmers in Gannan plateau, and the key factors of affecting the adaptation demands of the farmers by using the two logistic regression model. The results show that：（1） In the process of adaptation to climate change, the infrastructure demands of farmers in Gannan plateau is the most intense, and secondly are both of the demands of information and production technology. （2） There are different demands in adaptation to climate change in different regions, of which, both of the demands of the farmers of pastoral area and farming district for infrastructure are the strongest, and the demands of agricultural-pastoral area for information is the most intense. （3） Different livelihood strategies of farmers to climate change have different demands, of which, the demands of typeⅠhouseholds（with less than 10% of their income from non-farm） for credit insurance is the most intense, the demands of type Ⅱ households （with 10% to 50% of their income from non-farm） and type Ⅲ（with more than 50% of their income from non-farm） households for infrastructure are the most strong; （4） In addition, the natural capital and the physical capital are the key factors that affect farmers＇ demands for the production technology, the natural capital and the human capital are the key factors that influence farmers＇ demands for information, the human capital and the financial capital are the key factors that impact farmers＇ demands for infrastructure, and the natural capital, human capital, financial capital, material capital and th

关 键 词：气候变化 农户 适应需求 生计资本 甘南高原 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] F323.6[农业科学—农业基础科学]