住房财富与旅游消费——兼论高房价背景下提升新兴消费可行吗  

Housing Wealth and Tourism Consumption——Is It Feasible to Enhance Emerging Consumption at the Age of High Housing Prices?

作　　者：张传勇[1] 王丰龙[1] ZHANG Chuanyong WANG Fenglong(East China Normal University, 20006)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心城市发展研究院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2017年第3期83-98,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"住房对家庭资产配置及财富分配的影响研究:机制;模拟与实证"(71403059);中国博士后科学基金特别资助(2016T90323)和中国博士后科学基金一等资助(2015M570312)

摘　　要：自20世纪90年代末期实施城镇住房制度改革以来,中国居民家庭以房产为主的财富分布严重不均衡和居民消费率长期偏低已成为经济发展当中的重要矛盾,对此旅游消费等新兴消费也成为扩大内需的重要抓手。相比以往研究,本文创新性地以旅游消费为代表的家庭新兴消费为对象,研究高房价背景下提升家庭新兴消费的可行性。采用2012年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据进行实证分析后发现,住房财富增加显著地提升了家庭的旅游消费支出。在时间趋势上,家庭获得住房产权时间与旅游消费呈现"U"型关系;在微观机制上,住房财富对家庭旅游消费的影响主要表现为财富效应,而抵押负债效应(房奴效应)并不显著;家庭旅游消费扩张没有影响到家庭必需品和耐用品的消费,但却挤出了培训教育等其他新兴消费并会降低家庭新兴消费在总体支出中的比例。Since the implementation of urban housing reform in the 1990s, property-based wealth distribution is seriously unbalanced among households and long-term low rate of consumption economic, which becomes a major conflict during China＇s economic development. Emerging consumption including tourism becomes an important strategy to expand domestic demand. Compared to previous studies, this paper studies the feasibility of promoting the families＇ emerging consumption at the age of high housing prices by using tourism consumption as a proxy of emerging consumption. Based on the China Family Panel Studies （CFPS）, we find that increasing housing wealth significantly enhances household tourism expenditures. There is a U-shaped relationship between the time of owning residential property and tourism consumption, and the impacts of housing wealth on tourism consumption are mainly not through mortgage credit effect （house slaves effect） but through the wealth effect. Household tourism consumption hardly influences the consumption of durable goods and necessities, but crowds out other emerging consumption such as expenditure on education and training, and thus reduces the overall proportion of emerging consumption.

关 键 词：住房财富 财富效应 抵押负债效应 旅游消费 新兴消费 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F299.23