中国省际间产业区域转移的碳排放动态效应及影响机制  

Dynamic Effect and Mechanism of Carbon Emission during Regional Industrial Transfer in China

作　　者：许静[1] 周敏[1] 夏青 XU Jing ZHOU Min XIA Qing

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期74-85,共12页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"基于低碳视阈的江苏省产业空间有序转移与区域协同研究"(KYZZ15_0371);国家社科基金项目"经济新常态下中国生产性服务业与制造业协同演化机理与对策研究"(16CJL027);教育部人文社科基金项目"新型城镇化与能源消费协同演化效应研究"(15YJA630106)

摘　　要：在理论分析基础上,基于STIRPAT扩展模型,运用动态面板数据模型实证了1995—2013年间中国产业转移过程中碳排放动态变化及区域差异。模型结果显示,经济发展水平、产业结构优化及工业碳排放强度的提升均会产生碳减排效应,这一效应在欠发达地区更为显著,碳排放具有明显路径依赖特征。人口因素存在不确定性,因此不能过高或简单评价人口绝对数量对碳排放的影响。进一步分析发现,就中国现阶段实际情况而言,尽管碳排放已成为经济发展的硬性外部约束,但是产业转移并不是碳转移的前提,关键还是在于经济发展与技术创新。因此,鼓励低碳技术创新、优化工业产业结构及制定区域差异化环境规制政策是实现我国碳减排的重要途径。Base on STIRPAT extension model,the SYS-GMM is applied to investigate the dynamic changes and regional difference of carbon emission in the process of regional industrial transfer in China by using annual data ranging from 1995 to 2013.The estimated results show that both real GDP per capita,industrial structure and industrial carbon emission intensity will produce the effect of carbon emission reduction,especially in the less-developed regions.However,the carbon emission lag will contribute to carbon emission increase.The regional result of population which is different from the country result is not significant.Therefore,the influence of population on carbon emission shouldn＇t be accessed to a high level or in a simple way.Although carbon emission is tough external constraint in China,the industrial transfer is not a precondition of carbon pollution.The key ways of reducing carbon emission lie in economic development and technical innovation.As a result,encouraging low carbon technology innovation,optimizing industrial structure and formulating the environmental regulation policies for regional differentiation are effective methods to achieve the virtuous cycle of China＇s industrial carbon emission.

关 键 词：产业转移 碳排放 动态效应 STIRPAT SYS-GMM 区域差异 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]