耦合中期、长期径流预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度图研究  

Reservoir operation charts of inter-basin water transfer in intake area by coupling mid-and long-term runoff forecast

作　　者：卢迪[1] 周如瑞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州311122 [2]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2016年第6期7-12,19,共7页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51379027);辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2015020608)

摘　　要：针对跨流域引水工程受水水库如何提高引水有效性的问题,本文基于参数-模拟-优化模型(PSO),研究耦合中期、长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度图。结合碧流河水库实例研究,提出利用长期径流预报修正调度图引水上下限及采用"库容+中期径流预报"制定引水决策的方法。通过比较多种预报调度图的模拟结果及调度风险分析,论证耦合中期、长期径流预报调度图的合理性。结果表明:应用耦合长期、中期径流预报信息的调度图可有效减少跨流域引水量,提高水资源利用率,且相比仅考虑长期径流预报的调度图降低了缺水风险。In order to improve the effectiveness of reservoir water diversion in intake area of inter - basin water transfer project, reservoir operation charts of inter - basin water transfer in intake area by coupling mid - and long - term runoff forecast were studied based on the parameter - simulation - optimization （PSO） model. Through the ease study in the Biliuhe reservoir, the methods of employing long - term forecast to modify the upper and lower limitations of the water division rules, and ＂storage plus mid - term runoff forecast＂ were proposed. The different forecast operation methods were compared for the sim- ulated results and operation risk analysis. The rationality of coupling the mid - term and long - term run- off forecast operation charts was analyzed. The results showed that the coupling mid - and long - term runoff forecast operation charts could reduce the inter - basin diverted water effectively, improve the utili- zation efficiency of water resources, and reduce the water shortage risks compared with the operation charts by only using long - term runoff forecast.

关 键 词：跨流域引水 长期径流预报 中期径流预报 调度风险 

分 类 号：TV212.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]