人口老龄化与货币政策效力——基于新兴经济体的实证分析  

Population Aging and Monetary Policy Efficacy: An Empirical Analysis of Emerging Economies

作　　者：邹瑾[1] ZOU Jin(Siehuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《当代财经》2017年第3期3-13,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费研究专项项目"地方金融风险监测与预警平台建设"(skzx2016-rcrw05)

摘　　要：基于6个新兴经济体的数据,在用时变系数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法得到货币政策效力的代表变量后,探讨了老龄化对货币政策效力的影响。研究发现,老龄化削弱了货币政策效力,并呈现不对称的影响:其对产出的影响大于对通胀的影响,对调控利率的影响大于对调控货币供应量的影响。此外,这一效应在去除中国样本后更加显著,这说明了结果的稳健性和中国样本的异质性。随着新兴经济体金融体制的逐渐完善,老龄化对其货币政策效力的影响会更加凸显。因此,不仅要重视采用多样化的货币政策操作方式,更需要与其他结构性改革与宏观政策相配合,审时度势以应对老龄化挑战。Based on the data from six emerging economies, this paper probes into the impact of ageing on the effectiveness of monetary policy with the variables representing the effectiveness of monetary policy obtained with the method of TVP-VAR. The results show that the population ageing has weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy and there exists asymmetry in that impact, i.e., the impact on the output is greater than that on the inflation, and the impact on the interest regulation is greater than that on the money supply regulation. In addition, this effect is more significant after the Chinese sample is removed, which reflects the robustness of the result and the heterogeneity in the Chinese samples. With the financial systems in emerging economies being improved gradually, the impact of population aging on monetary policy efficacy will be more and more obvious. Thus, we should not only pay attention to the adoption of diversified monetary policy operation methods but also match them with other macro policies and structural reforms, so as to cope with the challenge of ageing with considerations of the situation.

关 键 词：人口结构 货币政策 时变系数向量自回归 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]