民间投资影响因素研究——基于分行业面板数据的实证  

The Influence Factors of Private Investment Based on the Empirical Study of Industry-Classified Panel Data

作　　者：鞠市委[1] JV Shiwei

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081

出　　处：《商业经济》2017年第4期97-100,103,共5页Business & Economy

摘　　要：通过借鉴Erden和Holcombe(2005)的模型,构造了一个研究中国民间投资影响因素的计量方程,并运用2006-2014年分行业面板数据进行了实证。研究结果表明:从行业整体角度看,影响我国民间投资的主要因素是产出增长和可用信贷量,国有控股投资没有对民间投资产生明显的"挤入挤出效应",宏观不确定对民间投资的影响表现不显著。对行业进一步分类研究表明:产出增长影响民间投资的"加速效应"受行业回报率的影响,行业回报率越高,产出增长的"加速效应"越显著;在限制进入行业及对资本、技术、资源要求较高的行业,国有控股投资对民间投资产生了显著的"挤入"效应;可用信贷量对于民间投资的影响则在低回报率行业和竞争性行业较显著。The studyconstructs a measurement equation which researches the influence factors of Chinese private investment by means of Erden and Holcombe （2005） model, and empirical studyof the industry-classified panel data from 2006 to 2014.The results show that the main influence factors are output growthand the available creditamounffrom the perspective of the industry.The stated-owned investment holding has no discemible＂crowding in or crowding out effect＂ on private investment.The macro uncertainty was not marked impact on pri- vate investment.Further industry classification research has shown that acceleration effect of output growth has been impacted by industry returns, the rate of industry retums is higher, and acceleration effect is more significant. In the restricted access industry and higher re- quirements industry for capital, technologyand resource, the stated-owned investment holding has created a remarkable＂crowding in ef- feet＂on private investment.The influence ofthe available ereditamount on private investment is more significant in the low return industry and competitive industry.

关 键 词：民间投资 挤入效应 灵活加速模型 结论 

分 类 号：F640[经济管理—产业经济]