交通、人口与路径依赖——基于江浙数据的估计  

Transportation,Population and History Dependence——Based on the Estimates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Data

作　　者：白小虎[1] 陈海盛 王松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中共浙江省委党校,杭州311121 [2]浙江省信用中心,杭州310006

出　　处：《上海经济》2017年第2期43-52,共10页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金课题一般课题"城市群非均衡演化的机制与路径研究"(编号:13BJL096);浙江省社科规划课题"新型城市化与浙江基本实现现代化研究"(编号:12JDKF01Z);浙江省社科"之江青年学者"课题"浙江区域经济空间优化与产业升级的微观动力机制研究"(编号:13ZJQN089YB);浙江省社科规划理论宣传专项课题"特色小镇:谱写经济新版图;引领经济新常态"(编号:16LLXC002YB)

摘　　要：通过对比江浙地区沪杭、沪宁两条高铁开通之后对沿线城市人口造成的若干影响,依据新古典经济学和路径依赖理论,分别提出了历史资本决定论、沉没投资决定论和报酬递增决定论等三类假说,采用DID的方法,分别予以考察。结论如下:区域人口演化存在路径依赖,路径依赖根源是区域产业的报酬递增,与交通不存在直接关系,交通劣势地区的人口规模,在历史累积的区位优势作用下,将依然收敛于一个高水平均衡点。By comparing the jiangsu and zhejiang area after two shanghai-hangzhou, shanghai-nanjing high-speed opening on the impact of urban population, based on the theory of new classical economics and path dependence, respectively, puts forward the historical determinism, sunk investment capital determinism and increasing return determinism and so on three kinds of hypothesis, using the method of DID examined respectively. Conclusion is as follows： existence of regional population evolution path dependence and path dependence causes regional industry is progressing, and there is no direct relationship between the traffic, traffic disadvantage area the size of the population, under the influence of historical accumulation of location advantages, will continue to converge to a high level of equilibrium.

关 键 词：路径依赖 报酬递增 人口 历史资本 沉没投资 

分 类 号：F542[经济管理—产业经济] F12