中国农产品出口日本市场的波动增长分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究  

The binary margin analysis of China's agricultural products exported to Japan market:the empirical research Based on VAR Model

作　　者：杨逢珉[1] 李晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《世界农业》2017年第3期122-131,共10页World Agriculture

摘　　要：中日互为重要的贸易伙伴,其中日本是中国农产品第一大出口市场。本文利用1995—2014年中国农产品出口日本市场的数据,分析了中国输日农产品的二元边际,发现中国对日本农产品出口增长主要由扩展边际拉动。本文也采用VAR模型探究了二元边际的影响因素,实证结果显示:中国农业生产力的提高对集约边际和扩展边际均具有正向促进作用;日本国内市场规模的扩大对集约边际具有正向影响,而对扩展边际具有负向影响;日本经济自由度的提高对扩展边际具有正向拉动作用,但对集约边际具有抑制作用。基于以上结论,本文有针对性地提出了扩大中国输日农产品规模的对策建议。China and Japan are important trading partners,and Japan is China's largest export market for agricultural products.This paper uses the data of China's agricultural export to Japan market from 1995 to 2014,calculates the binary margin of China's agricultural products,and finds that the growth of China's agricultural export to Japan is mainly driven by extensive margin.This paper uses VAR model to explore the influence factors of binary margin.The empirical results show that:the improvement of China's agricultural productivity has a positive effect on both extensive margin and intensive margin;the expansion of Japan's domestic market has a positive impact on intensive margin;the increase of Japan's economic freedom plays a positive role in boosting the extensive margin,but this will restrain the improvement of intensive margin.According to empirical findings,the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestion.

关 键 词：中日农产品贸易 二元边际 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]