消费者异质性视角下江浙沪地区进口贸易研究  

Research about Jiang-Zhe-Hu Region's Import under the Perspective of the Consumer Heterogeneity

作　　者：高新[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,200439

出　　处：《科学．经济．社会》2017年第1期45-54,共10页Science Economy Society

基　　金：上海财经大学研究生创新基金(CXJJ-2014-343)

摘　　要：2012年开始中国GDP增速开始回落,进入了新常态,进口贸易起到了非常重要的作用。但是出口贸易和生产者方面研究研究是关注的焦点,对进口贸易和需求方面有所忽略。理论方面,本文将消费者异质性引入模型中,发现消费者异质性对进口贸易有重要影响。实证方面,本文选取了长三角地区发展和民生指数(DLI)和GDP含金量衡量消费者异质性,利用2000年至2013年平衡面板数据和引力模型进行分析,结果表明:总体上长三角两省一市的进口贸易与贸易双方的GDP显著正相关、与贸易距离显著负相关,与中国的消费者异质性显著正相关,同时,考虑到长三角地区、贸易伙伴国特性与消费者异质性的交叉效应,也存在着明显差异:一方面,上海交叉弹性最小、江苏次之、浙江最大;另一方面,贸易伙伴引起的交叉弹性从大到小分别为拉美洲、澳洲、北美洲、欧洲、亚洲以及非洲。In 2012 China＇s GDP growth rate began to fall, and enter into the new normal, import trade has played a veryimportant role. But export trade and producer is the focus of the research and the import trade and the demand side is ig-nored. Theoretical side, this paper introduces consumer heterogeneity in the model, and finds that consumer heterogeneityhas important influence on import trade. Empirical aspect, this article selects the development and people＇s livelihood index（DLI） and GDP value Yangtze River Delta region to measure consumer heterogeneity, and uses the balance panel data from2000-2013 and gravity model to analyze, the results show that on the import trade is significantly positively related to GDPof trade partners, and is significantly negative correlation with distance, it is significantly positive correlation to China＇sconsumer heterogeneity, at the same time, considering the cross effect of the Yangtze River Delta region and trading part-ners to consumer heterogeneity, there are obvious differences： on the one hand, Zhejiang cross elasticity is maximum, Jian-gsu takes second place, and Shanghai is minimum; of Cross elasticity of trade partners, on the other hand, from big tosmall, is respectively Latin America, Australia, North America, Europe, Asia and Africa.

关 键 词：新常态 进口贸易 消费者异质性 地区发展和民生指数 GDP含金量 

分 类 号：F403[经济管理—产业经济]