基于最优尺度分析的游客高聚集场所安全风险研究  

The Research on the Safety Risk of Tourists Crowded Places Which is Based on the Optimal Dimension Analysis

作　　者：殷杰[1] 郑向敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院,福建泉州362021 [2]华侨大学旅游安全研究院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《科学．经济．社会》2017年第1期76-82,89,共8页Science Economy Society

基　　金：国家社科基金<游客高聚集场所风险防范与安全防控研究>(15BGL119);华侨大学研究生科研创新能力培育计划项目资助

摘　　要：大众旅游时代下,游客蜂拥出游,游客极易在局部空间形成游客高聚集场所,安全风险骤增。加强游客高聚集场所的风险认知及探究其在时空维度的风险表征具有重要的实践意义。本研究在界定游客高聚集场所概念的基础上阐述了其高风险性。选取2004-2015年间游客高聚集场所的相关案例,利用频数统计辨识和分析了游客高聚集场所的类型及其时空特征,并借助最优尺度分析中的非线性典型相关分析探求时空因素与安全风险变量间的具体内在关系。游客高聚集场所的安全风险具有一定的时空特征,因此提出了"因时制宜"和"因地制宜"的安全防控策略。With the era of mass tourism, tourists flock to travel. It is easy for tourists to gather in local space and the spacewill be tourists crowded places. It is significant to explore the high risk of Tourists crowded places and the representation ofrisk in time and space dimensions. This study identified the concept of tourists crowded places. On the basis, the study ex-pounded its high risk. Then we selected some cases of tourists crowded places from 2004 to 2015 and identified and ana-lyzed the types and characteristics of time and space of tourists crowded places. Meanwhile, using the analysis of the opti-mal scale of nonlinear canonical correlation analysis to explore the specific inner relationship between factors of time andspace and security risk. The research found that the security risk of tourists crowded places has certain characteristics oftime and space. According to the conclusion, the research put forward the “adjust measures according to time” and “adjustmeasures to local conditions” security prevention and control strategy.

关 键 词：游客高聚集场所 安全风险 非线性典型相关分析 

分 类 号：F403[经济管理—产业经济]