从美国大选看大数据与网络舆情研究  

U.S.Election 2016 and its Insights to Big Data and Internet Opinion Research

作　　者：张志安[1,2] 曹小杰[1] 晏齐宏[3] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学传播与设计学院 [2]广州大数据与公共传播人文社科重点研究基地 [3]中山大学

出　　处：《汕头大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第1期83-90,共8页Journal of Shantou University(Humanities and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：2016教育部哲学社科研究重大课题攻关项目“大数据时代国家意识形态安全风险与防范体系构建研究”(编号16JZD006)的系列成果

摘　　要：2016年美国总统大选中特朗普的意外当选让传统民意调查陷入尴尬境地。在社交媒体盛行的时代,大数据方法对了解民意尤其是网络舆情似乎有着天然的优势,但是否因此可以认为民意调查的传统方法已经过时?文章从2016年美国大选出发,基于对传统民意调查方法和大数据分析优劣势的比较分析,认为在分析社会舆情时,一方面应该加快发展大数据方法以把握网民心态,另一方面也应借鉴传统民意调查方法的逻辑和抽样原则,以回应网络舆情无法囊括的群体及相关问题等。The fact that Donald Trump finally won the US Election 2016 provoked criticism on traditional methods of public opinion research.One of such arguments is that with the boom of social media,big data analysis seems to show great advantages in internet opinion research.Does this mean that methods of random sampling and the like used in public opinion research is outdated？ Based on a comparative analysis between traditional methods and big data analysis in the case of US Election 2016,this paper argues that,when doing analysis on social opinion,on the one hand,we should apply big data analysis in order to understand the social ethos revealed in cyberspace; while one the other hand we should not overlook the value of traditional methods of public opinion research in order to cover what has missed in internet opinion.

关 键 词：美国大选 大数据分析 网络舆情 

分 类 号：G20[文化科学—传播学]