生态视角下中国粮食可持续安全状况评价及其影响因素分析  

Evaluation of Sustainable Food Security in China and Its Influencing Factors from the Perspective of Ecology

作　　者：张慧[1,2] 肖国安[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410006 [2]广东药科大学医药经济学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2017年第2期78-83,127,共7页Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"增强国家粮食安全综合保障能力研究"(项目编号:12&ZD052);广东省哲学社会科学"十三五"规划2016年度一般项目"基于生态视角的中国粮食可持续安全研究"(项目编号:GD16CYJ10)

摘　　要：运用熵值法对生态视角下我国粮食可持续安全进行评价,并就其现状、走势和存在的问题进行数据分析。同时,运用分位数回归方法对其主要影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:1997—2014年我国生态视角下粮食可持续安全状况在不断优化且呈现出了显著的阶段性,目前正处于较高的水平,但也存在一些不可忽视的问题。就其影响因素而言,城镇化发展与产业结构调整的影响是"U"型的,生态环境治理、农业劳动力流失、技术进步的影响是正向的,城乡收入差距的影响是负向的。在粮食安全的投入、生产、供应、获取和利用环节,各主要因素的影响效应是各有差异的。Based on the construction of evaluation system, this paper uses entropy method to evaluate the sustainable food safety in China from the perspective of ecology, analyzes its status quo, trend and problems, and makes an empirical analysis on its main influ-encing factors using the quantile regression method. The results show that： in the view of ecology in China, the situation of sustainable food security in 1997 -2014 has been optimized and presented a significant stage, which is at a high level, but there are still some problems that can not be ignored. In terms of its influencing factors, the influence of the development of urbanization and the adjust-ment of industrial structure is the “ U” type, the influence of ecological environment governance, agricultural labor loss, technical pro-gress is positive, the influence of urban - rural income gap is negative. In the links of food safety input, production, supply, access and use, the impact of the main factors is different.

关 键 词：粮食安全 生态性 可持续性 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]