人口:中国的“软肋”  

Population:China's “Heel of Achilles”

作　　者：原华荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学人口与发展研究所中国西部发展研究院环境与资源研究所非传统安全与和平发展研究中心,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《吉林师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第2期87-101,共15页Journal Of Jilin Normal University:Humanities & Social Science Edition

摘　　要：人口数量是决定人类、生物圈命运的"序参量",对社会、环境和人类自身,不论从伦理学、社会学、经济学,还是从人口学、生态学、未来学看,其影响都是根本性的。数量过多是"心膂之忧";"规模问题"不存在技术解,技术拯救在当代是一个"陷阱";人口增长在历史上将社会推向只有文明崩溃才能走出的"高位均衡陷阱",周期性波动的人口,则通过对文明因子的"纽带作用",主导着王朝的兴衰交替。人口是中国的"软肋",第一次大爆炸造成环境的全方位大破坏,成为"百年屈辱"的总根源;第二次大爆炸则与30多年来环境的"总体恶化"相伴随。生态/环境的总体恶化是人口-经济规模强制下的必然,人多地少是难以破解的资源/环境瓶颈,粮食安全是悬在头顶之上的"达摩克利斯之剑",大国的国家力量显著小于总产量相同的小国。坚持计划生育基本国策,做经济强国不做人口大国是中国根本而唯一的选择!Population size is the'order parameter'that determines the fate of human beings and the biosphere and has fundamental influence on the society,the environment and the mankind itself,whether from perspective of ethics,sociology and economics or from demography,ecology and futurology point of view.Excessive population is a'critical problem'; There is no'technological solution'to the'problem of size'.'Technology rescue'is but a'trap'in contemporary era.In history,population growth pushed the society to'high-level equilibrium trap'with civilization collapse as the only way out.The cyclically fluctuated population dominated the rise and fall of the dynasties through the link function of the civilization factor.Population is the'Achilles' heel'of China.The first explosion resulted in all-round destruction and became the fundamental cause of the'hundred year humiliation'; the second exploration was accompanied by'overall deterioration'of environment in over three decades.Overall deterioration of ecology/environment is the inevitable result of the coercion of population-economic scale.Large population with relatively little arable land is a hard-to-solve resources-environment problem.Food safety is the'Sword of Damocles'hanging above the head.The national power of a big country is obviously smaller than that of the small countries with the same total output.Therefore,the basic state policy is to adhere to birth control.To be an economical power instead of populous nation is the only fundamental choice for China.

关 键 词：人口数量 “序参量” “规模问题” 技术 中国 “软肋” 生态/环境 “粮食安全” 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学] C924.24