攀西烤烟生产对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究  

Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Flue-cured Tobacco Production to Climate Change in Panxi

作　　者：陈超[1] 庞艳梅[1] 刘琰琰[2] 张玉芳[3] 曹艳秋 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都610225 [3]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072 [4]凉山州气象局,四川西昌615000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2017年第4期111-118,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目"攀西地区特色优势作物农业气象灾害评估技术及应用"(2015NZ0035);国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)"气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及其影响与对策"(2013CB430205)

摘　　要：本研究基于1981—2014年四川省攀西地区15个县的气象和烤烟资料,建立烤烟产量和各气候因子的一元线性及逐步回归方程,研究攀西烤烟产量对单个气候因子和气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性,为烤烟生产应对气候变化提供理论支持。结果表明:攀西烤烟产量随着气温和日较差上升1℃、降水减少100 mm、辐射增加100 MJ/m2产生了响应,辐射量上升导致产量敏感的面积比例最大,占播种总面积的51.8%,产量变化为-47.26%~23.53%;最低气温升高导致产量脆弱的面积最大,占总面积的32.0%,产量变化为-38.3%^-7.79%;产量对移栽期的气温和日较差升高、成熟采烤期的辐射量增加以及旺长期的降水量减少最敏感。受到6个气候因子变化的综合影响,烤烟产量对气候变化表现为敏感的面积比例为59.8%,产量变化为-26.3%~36.1%,脆弱的面积为28.9%;产量对旺长期和成熟采烤期的气候变化最敏感。不同区域和不同生育阶段气候变化对烤烟产量的影响存在差异,需要因地制宜地应对气候变化带来的不利影响,并抓住有利的气候资源,保障攀西烤烟的安全生产。Based on the meteorological data and flue-cured tobacco production data from 15 counties in Panxi of Sichuan from 1981 to 2014,the sensitivity and vulnerability of flue-cured tobacco yield to climatic factors and climate change were estimated by using the regression relationships between changes in yield and climatic variables which could provide important theoretical support for flue-cured tobacco production under climate change.The results showed that：with 1℃ increase of growing-season air temperature,1℃ increase of diurnal temperature range,100 mm decrease of precipitation,100 MJ/m2 increase of radiation,the flue-cured tobacco yield showed responses to these changes;the area with yield sensitivity was the largest to the radiation increase,which was 51.8% of the total sown area,the yield change was-47.26%-23.53%;the area with yield vulnerability was the largest to the minimum temperature increase,which was 32.0% of the total sown area,the yield change was-38.3%--7.79%;responses of flue-cured tobacco yield to climatic factors mainly occurred in transplanting,vigorous growth and maturing stages;the combined effects of the observed trends of the 6 climatic variables caused significant change in roughly 59.8% of the flue-cured tobacco areas,the yield change was-26.3%-36.1%,but with a roughly 28.9% showed yield vulnerability;response of flue-cured tobacco yield to climate change mainly occurred in vigorous growth and maturing stages;there were big differences in the responses of flue-cured tobacco yield to the various climatic factors in different regions and different growth stages.Therefore,we need to address the negative impacts of climate change according to local conditions,as well as take advantage of favorable climatic resources during the key growing periods,in order to ensure a safe flue-cured tobacco production in Panxi.

关 键 词：烤烟 气候变化 敏感性 脆弱性 攀西 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]