发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警的效果  

Effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A(H1N1) outbreak

作　　者：陈维迪[1] 陆亚君[1] 毛利君[1] 乐世峰[1] 范孟对[1] 

机构地区：[1]慈溪市人民医院感染科,浙江慈溪315300

出　　处：《中华医院感染学杂志》2017年第6期1221-1224,共4页Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology

基　　金：第四轮公共卫生三年行动计划重点学科建设基金资助项目(15GWZK0103)

摘　　要：目的探讨发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警效果。方法收集2007年1月-2009年12月本地区发热呼吸道症状监测数据进行分析,对2009年甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情数据进行拟合判断预警效果。结果 2009年甲型H1N1病例数在第35周后明显增加,在42周到达高峰,随即开始下降,其走势与ILI%(流感样病例占同期门急诊就诊总人数百分比)趋势相同;控制图法预警显示:ILI%在21~29周,35~43周和46周出现预警信息,基本与2009年甲型H1N1流行趋势一致;移动平均数回归法预警显示,2009年25~26周,29周,36~42周ILI%超过平均线,其中第42周超过了平均线+2.0标准差预警线,与2009年甲型H1N1第42周达到高峰的流行趋势吻合。结论发热呼吸道症状监测预警能较好的反映甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情,其中应用移动平均回归法预警效果较控制图法好。OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A（H1N1）outbreak.METHODS The fever respiratory symptoms monitoring data from Jan.2007 to Dec.2009 were collected and analyzed,and the 2009 influenza A（H1N1）outbreak epidemic data were fitted to determine the effect of early warning.RESULTS The case of 2009 influenza A（H1N1）increased significantly in the 35 th weeks,reached a peak in the 42 nd week,then began to decline,and was the same as the trend of ILI%（percentage of influenza like cases to the total number of outpatient and emergency visits at the same time）.Control chart method warning indicated,ILI% appeared warning information in the 21st-29 th week,35th-43 rd week and 46 week,which was consistent with the 2009 influenza A（H1N1）trends.Moving average regression early warning indicated,ILI% was over the average line in 25th-26 th week,29 th week,and 36 th week-42 nd week in2009,and was over the average line＋2.0standard deviation warning line in 42 nd week,which was matched the epidemic trend of 2009 influenza A（H1N1）.CONCLUSION Fever respiratory symptoms monitoring warning can preferably reflect the outbreak of influenza A（H1N1）,and the early warning effect of moving average regression is better than that of control chart method.

关 键 词：甲型H1N1流感 早期预警 移动平均回归法 

分 类 号：R373.1[医药卫生—病原生物学]