金融危机与统计发展  

Financial Crisis and Development of Statistics

作　　者：陈梦根[1] 刘浩[1] 胡雪梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2017年第2期115-130,共16页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"政府债务管理及风险预警机制研究"(14ZDA047);国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国实施国际比较项目(ICP)的技术难点与创新研究"(13AZD086);教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目"基于国际标准的政府债务统计与预警管理体系研究"(13YJA630005)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：回顾近百年来统计发展的历程,经济或金融危机往往对统计带来新的冲击与挑战,成为推动统计变革与创新的动力之源。1930年代的大萧条直接推动了国民账户体系(SNA)的诞生,标志着现代统计体系的基本框架正式建立,是现代统计发展史上的一个重要里程碑。1990年代频频爆发的金融危机引发国际统计准则体系的大发展、大繁荣,扩展到各个专业领域和各个统计环节。这一轮冲击推动了现代统计的第二次革命性变革,集中体现为各国统计在规范性、标准化和国际可比性等方面显著提升。2008年国际金融危机对统计影响深刻,一方面,此次危机暴露出现行统计体系存在巨大的信息缺口;另一方面,此次危机将对现行统计体系带来新一轮变革。围绕危机视角的信息缺口,在大数据、云计算、物联网等技术飞速发展的背景下,一场新的数据革命正在悄然展开,重点涉及五大领域:统计范式、内容体系、风险测度理论、稳健性监测、数据质量。完善统计体系,弥补信息缺口,改进危机风险监测,已成国际社会的当务之急。Looking back at the development of statistics in the past decades,one can find that economic or financial crises usually brought new shocks and challenges to statistics.The Great Depression in the 1930s directly led to the buildup of the System of National Accounts(SNA), which marked the formal establishment of the basic framework of modern statistical system,a milestone in the history of statistical development.Similarly,the frequent outbreaks of financial crises in the 1990s led to the second revolution of statistics,expanding international statistical standards into various professional fields and improving the standardization and international comparability of statistics in different economies.The 2008 global financial crisis also had a profound impact on statistics and identified significant information gaps in the statistical system.On the other hand,it has also led to another revolutionary development of statistics.Against the backdrop of fast development of such technologies as big data,cloud computing and internet of things,a new statistical revolution is unfolding in the following fields:1)statistical paradigm;2)content system;3)risk measurement;4)stability monitoring;and 5)data quality.It is urgent for the international community to improve the statistical system,fill the information gap,and improve monitoring of crisis risks.

关 键 词：金融危机 统计发展 信息缺口 数据革命 风险监测 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济] F831.59