投资者关注与分析师预测精度  

Investor Attention and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy

作　　者：王明伟[1] 张琳[1] 孙文晶[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究中心 [2]西南财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2017年第2期80-92,共13页China Economic Studies

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(JBK1407138)的资助

摘　　要：本文以投资者在不同周历阶段中有差异的关注程度作为切入点,以2009-2014年分析师盈余预测为研究样本,考察了投资者关注对我国分析师预测精度的影响,并从声誉维护和利益冲突两个视角分析其背后的作用机理。研究结果表明:投资者关注程度较高时,分析师预测偏差和预测乐观度较低,即投资者关注与分析师预测精度正相关;出于声誉维护的考虑,明星分析师和目标公司信息透明度高的报告具有更强的关注效应;受制于利益冲突的影响,仅非承销商分析师具有显著的关注效应;与其他因素相比,目标公司信息透明度是影响关注效应的首要因素。Based on a sample of analysts＇ earnings forecast in 2009-2014,this paper studies how investor attention influences the forecast accuracy of analysts in our country,with using investors＇ discrepant attention in different week-calendar stages as the breakthrough point,and analyse the interaction mechanism from the two aspect of the reputation maintenance and the conflict of interest. It is found that the higher the degree of investors＇ attention,the lower the analysts＇ optimism and their forecast error,in other words,investor attention has a positive correlation with analysts＇ forecast accuracy; For reasons of reputation maintenance,the reports of star analysts and target companies with high information transparency have stronger attention effects; Subject to the impact of conflict of interest,only non-underwriter analysts have a significant effect of attention. What＇s more,compared with other factors,transparency of target company is the important factor which effects the attention effects.

关 键 词：投资者关注 周历阶段 声誉维护 利益冲突 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]