基于粒计算的非常规突发事件情景层次模型  

Hierarchical Scenario Model of Unconventional Emergency Based on Granular Computing

作　　者：陈雪龙[1] 卢丹[1] 代鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2017年第1期129-138,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71203019;71533001);辽宁省社科规划基金资助项目(L13DGL061);辽宁经济社会发展立项课题(2016lslktziglx-05);国土资源部黄土地质灾害重点实验室开放基金(KLGLAMLR201602)

摘　　要：针对已有非常规突发事件情景表示模型与构建方法在支持多层次用户过程中所表现出来的不足,本文首先给出情景要素的形式化表示;在此基础上,给出基于粒计算非常规突发事件情景层次模型;给出情景泛化算法,实现低层次情景到高层次情景的泛化过程;最后通过一个算例探讨模型的应用过程,并论证其科学性及可行性。研究结果表明,基于粒计算给出非常规突发事件情景层次模型,可有效实现基于复杂、不确定情景信息快速生成满足不同层次应急管理用户需求的不同粒度情景结构。To cover the shortages of existent scenario representation models and scenario construction methods for unconventional emergency in being used to support multi-level emergency management personnel,the formal representation of scenario elements is discussed firstly.Then,the hierarchical scenario model of unconventional emergency based on granular computing is proposed.Afterwards,the scenario generalization algorithm is put forward to realize the scenario generalization processes from low-level scenarios to up-level scenarios.In the end,an example is analyzed to illustrate the application process and to prove the scientificalness and the feasibility of the proposed model.The results show that the hierarchical scenario model of unconventional emergency based on granular computing can generate scenario structures of different granularities which can be used to support multi-level emergency management personnel on the basis of complex and uncertain scenario information.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 情景 情景层次模型 情景泛化 粒计算 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]