基于粗糙集理论的飞机复飞事故影响因素分析  

Influencing Factors of Airplane Go-around Accidents Based on the Rough Set Theory

作　　者：刘军凯[1] 崔振新[1] LIU Junkai CUI Zhenxin(Research Institute of Civil Aviation Safety ,Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2017年第2期172-177,182,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61304207)

摘　　要：为研究飞机复飞过程中发生事故的影响因素,以2007—2015年官方发布的完整事故调查报告的35起复飞事故为样本,通过研究复飞过程和分析事故报告并与行业专家交流沟通,构建了以机组、管制、天气、机械、航空公司、民航局为主的6项一级指标和23项二级指标的影响因素评价指标体系,并分别统计各项指标在每起复飞事故中的发生情况,利用粗糙集理论对各项指标的重要性进行了评价与分析。结果表明:机组原因和航空公司的原因是对复飞事故影响最大的因素;天气原因和机械原因对复飞事故的影响次之;管制原因也对复飞事故有一定的影响。In order to study the influencing factors of airplane accidents during the phase of go-around（hereinafter referred to as the go-around accidents）,this paper conducts the research with 35go-around accidents from 2007 to 2015with the official released complete accident investigation report as the sample.By researching the process of go-around,analyzing the accident report,and communicating with industry experts,this paper builds the influencing factors evaluation index system which includes 6first level indexes（aircrews,ATC,weather,machinery,airlines and civil aviation authority）and 23 secondary level indexes.Then the paper calculates occurrence times of each index in each accident,and uses the rough set theory to analyze the importance of each index.The results show that the largest influencing factors on the go-around accidents are the aircrews and airlines,followed by the weather and machinery,and the ATC also has influence on the go-around accidents.

关 键 词：飞机复飞事故 影响因素 粗糙集理论 重要性 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]