基于系统仿真的港口生态承载力动态评价模型  

Dynamic evaluation model of port ecological carrying capacity based on system simulation

作　　者：张祺[1,2] 张娇凤[3] 王文渊[1,2] 宋向群[1,2] 郭子坚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部,南京211100 [2]大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024 [3]江苏省交通规划设计院股份有限公司,南京211100

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2017年第1期91-100,共10页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279026)

摘　　要：针对目前港口生态承载力研究中过程机制和时间动态性考虑不足等问题,构建港口生态系统承载力复合评价模型,实现对港口生态承载力的动态评价和演变趋势预测.首先,应用系统动力学理论,从社会经济、资源和环境三方面建立港口生态承载力的系统动力学模型;其次,引入生态承载力综合评价法,提出港口生态承载力综合评价指标体系,建立港口生态承载力复合评价模型.在此基础上,以北方某港区为例,运用复合评价模型,对该港区生态承载状况进行现状分析和参数敏感性分析,识别港区生态承载状况的主要影响因子;设置自然发展方案和综合调控方案,动态模拟和评价2015—2030年港区生态承载状况的演变趋势.仿真结果表明,综合调控方案能有效解决港区生态超载的问题,显著提高港区生态承载水平.研究结果可为生态型港口建设及港口生态修复提供理论依据.In order to solve the problem of insufficient consideration of process mechanism and temporal dynamic in the study of port ecological carrying capacity,a comprehensive evaluation method of ecological carrying capacity was proposed,and the dynamic evaluation and prediction of evolutionary trend on port ecological capacity was realized. Firstly,a system dynamics model for port ecological carrying capacity was built from the aspects of social economy,resources and environment by using the theory of system dynamics. Secondly,the comprehensive evaluation index system of port ecological carrying capacity was proposed by introducing the comprehensive evaluation method of ecological carrying capacity,and a multiple evaluation model for port ecological carrying capacity was set up. On this basis,taking a port in northern China as an example,the status analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis of ecological carrying states were conducted to identify the key impacting factors by using the multiple evaluation model. Then,the natural development plan and the comprehensive control plan were set up to simulate and evaluate dynamically the evolution trend of port ecological carrying states from 2015 to 2030. Results indicate that the comprehensive control plan can effectively solve the ecological overload problem in the port area and improve significantly the level of port ecological carrying states. The result can provide a theoretical basis for ecological port construction and restoration.

关 键 词：生态型港口 生态承载力 状态空间法 复合评价模型 敏感性分析 演变趋势 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]