人民币汇率变动及趋势分析  

Analysis on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Trend

作　　者：杨欣[1] 胡增芳[1] YANG Xin HU Zeng-fang(Department of Finance, Anhui Business College, Wuhu 241002, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽商贸职业技术学院财务金融系,安徽芜湖241002

出　　处：《安徽商贸职业技术学院学报》2017年第1期29-32,共4页Journal of Anhui Business College

基　　金：2012年安徽省教育厅人文社科研究项目(SK2012B191);中国商业会计学会2013年课题(KJ201303)

摘　　要：自改革开放以来,人民币汇率制度经历了5个时期的改革,才逐渐形成了目前的以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。影响人民币汇率变动的主要因素有经济发展状况、国际收支状况、货币国际化程度、政治因素、财政政策等。从长期看,人民币汇率基础比较稳定,国际地位将进一步提升,将保持长期稳定并有一定的升值空间;从短期看,尽管受国际因素干扰,有升值或贬值的压力,但人民币汇率整体保持稳定,可能略有小幅波动。Since China＇s reform and opening-up,our RMB exchange rate system has gone through five stages of reform and then the current floating exchange rate system is applied with market demands as the orientation and is adjusted as well as regulated according to a basket of currencies.The main factors affecting RMB exchange rate fluctuation include economic development situation,international balance of payment,currency internationalization degree,politics,and financial policies and so on.In the long run,the basis of RMB exchange rate is relatively stable and the international status of RMB will be improved and remain stable with certain appreciation space; in the short run,RMB exchange rate will remain stable despite of the pressure of RMB appreciation or depreciation from the interference due to international factors,possibly with small-scope fluctuation.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 变动 历史 因素 趋势 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]