2016年超强厄尔尼诺背景下的强对流和极端降水天气特点  

Characteristics of 2016 severe convective weather and extreme rainfalls under the background of super El Ni?o

作　　者：毕宝贵 张小玲 代刊 BI BaoGui ZHANG XiaoLing DAI Kan(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《科学通报》2017年第9期928-937,共10页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB430106);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306011;GYHY201306002)资助

摘　　要：2015/2016年发生了1951年有观测记录以来最强一次厄尔尼诺事件.本文分析了2016年的强对流和极端降水天气特征,并与1981年以来的同期天气对比分析发现:2016年强对流天气尤其雷暴大风和短时强降水天气远超历史同期,成为近年来强对流灾害最严重的一年,也是2000年以来极端降水事件最频发的一年;1981年以来强对流和极端降水天气的年际变化特征表明,厄尔尼诺发生期间中国强对流和极端降水多发特征不明显,但超强厄尔尼诺事件(1982/1983,1997/1998,2015/2016年)结束当年,极端降水和强对流天气发生频次明显较其他年份多;1983年表现为雷暴大风和冰雹频发,极端降水与常年无异;1998年全国极端降水日数最多,短时强降水(≥20 mm/h),尤其致灾性短时强降水(≥50 mm/h)频发;2016年则为雷暴大风和短时强降水频发,冰雹维持持续减少趋势,北方地区极端降水日数为1981年以来第2高位,其中7月18~20日以华北地区为暴雨中心的全国降水量远超历史同期.The strongest El Nino event that has been ever seen since observation records started in 1951 occurred in 2015/2016. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the severe convective weather and extreme rainfalls that were experienced from January to August, 2016, which are then compared to those found for the corresponding periods since 1981. The findings are summarized as follows.（1） Severe convective weather, especially thunderstorm gales and short-time rainstorms, occurred much more in 2016 than normal, resulting in the most serious severe convective disasters in the recent years and the most extreme precipitation events since 2000.（2） The interannual variation of the severe convective weather and extreme rainfalls since 1981 reveals that in the years（1982/1983, 1997/1998, 2015/2016） when super El Nino events ended the extreme rainfalls and severe convective weather occurred much more than those during the normal El Nino years, when there are not very obvious features of high frequency of such weather events.（3） In 1983, thunderstorm gales and hails occurred frequently, but the extreme rainfall days were similar with those in normal years except in the Yangtze River valley.（4） In 1998, extreme precipitation days over the whole country were the most since 1981, and the frequency of short-time heavy precipitation（≥20 mm/h） was only second to that in 2016 while the disaster-inducing short-time rainstorms（≥50 mm/h） was the most since 1981.（5） In 2016, severe convective weather was mainly reflected by frequent thunderstorm gales and short-time rainstorms, which were more than the climatic averages over the Yangtze River valley and its south regions. Especially, the fierce thunderstorm gales stronger than 25 m/s were the most in the recent five years, about 3–4 times of those in the other years. However, hail events were still in the decreasing trend as the result of the remarkable decrease in hail over the northern part of China. Comparatively, the days of extreme rainfalls in

关 键 词：超强厄尔尼诺 雷暴大风 短时强降水 极端降水 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]