Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation on shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China using landslide susceptibility dynamics and rainfall I-D thresholds  

作　　者：LI WeiYue LIU Chun Marco SCAIONI SUN WeiWei CHEN Yu YAO DongJing CHEN Sheng HONG Yang ZHANG KaiHang CHENG GuoDong 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Urban Study, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China [2]Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China [3]College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200234, China [4]Department of Architecture, Built Environment and Construction Engineering, Politecnico Milano, Milano 20133, Italy [5]College of Architectural Engineering, Civil Engineering and Environment, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China [6]Shandong Academy of Building Research, Jinan 250031, China [7]Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China [8]School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China [9]Key Laboratory of Beibu Gulf Environmental Evolution and Resources Utilization, Guangxi Teachers Education University, Nanning 530001, China [10]School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, OK 73074, USA [11]Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China [12]Institute of Tourism, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2017年第4期720-732,共13页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41501458);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(Grant No.2016M592860);National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB733204);Key Laboratory of Mining Spatial Information Technology of NASMG(Grant Nos. KLM201309);Science Program of Shanghai Normal University(Grant No. SK201525);the Shanghai Gaofeng & Gaoyuan Project for University Academic Program Development(Grant Nos.2013LASW-A09 & SKHL1310);the Center of Spatial Information Science and Sustainable Development Applications,Tongji University,Shanghai,China

摘　　要：An empirical simulation method to simulate the possible position of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China has been developed.This study shows that such a simulation may be operated in real-time to highlight those areas that are highly prone to rainfall-induced landslides on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index and the rainfall intensity-duration(I-D) thresholds.First,the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced.The entire territory has been classified into five categories,among which high-susceptibility regions(Zone 4-'High' and 5-'Very high') account for 4.15%of the total extension of China.Second,rainfall is considered as an external triggering factor that may induce landslide initiation.Real-time satellite-based TMPA3B42 products may provide real rainfall spatial and temporal patterns,which may be used to derive rainfall duration time and intensity.By using a historical record of 60 significant past landslides,the rainfall I-D equation has been calibrated.The rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours.The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall-induced landslide hazards when rainfall events exceed the rainfall I-D thresholds,where the susceptibility category is 'high' or 'very high'.This study shows a useful tool to be part of a systematic landslide simulation methodology,potentially providing useful information for a theoretical basis and practical guide for landslide prediction and mitigation throughout China.An empirical simulation method to simulate the possible position of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China has been developed.This study shows that such a simulation may be operated in real-time to highlight those areas that are highly prone to rainfall-induced landslides on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index and the rainfall intensity-duration（I-D） thresholds.First,the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced.The entire territory has been classified into five categories,among which high-susceptibility regions（Zone 4-＇High＇ and 5-＇Very high＇） account for 4.15%of the total extension of China.Second,rainfall is considered as an external triggering factor that may induce landslide initiation.Real-time satellite-based TMPA3B42 products may provide real rainfall spatial and temporal patterns,which may be used to derive rainfall duration time and intensity.By using a historical record of 60 significant past landslides,the rainfall I-D equation has been calibrated.The rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours.The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall-induced landslide hazards when rainfall events exceed the rainfall I-D thresholds,where the susceptibility category is ＇high＇ or ＇very high＇.This study shows a useful tool to be part of a systematic landslide simulation methodology,potentially providing useful information for a theoretical basis and practical guide for landslide prediction and mitigation throughout China.

关 键 词：Surface and subsurface runoff Runoff-produced physical and chemical deposits Precipitated salts and water circulation Groundwater supply mechanism Badain Jaran Desert 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] S157.1[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]