2015/16榨季中国食糖生产形势分析与2016/17榨季展望  

Domestic Sugar Production in 2015/16 Crushing Season and Its Prospect for 2016/17 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 王新超[1] Liu Xiaoxue Wang Xinchao(Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第2期41-48,共8页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-20-11B);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究"

摘　　要：2015/16榨季,全球食糖产业处于减产周期,国际糖价先震荡探底后明显上涨。2015/16榨季中国糖料种植面积约138.27万hm^2,同比下降12.40%。其中,甘蔗种植面积明显下滑,甜菜面积稳中略升。由于甘蔗种植的比较收益不高,甘蔗种植意愿及田间管理程度下降,导致甘蔗单产水平不高、种植面积下降,由此国内食糖产量大幅下滑20.03%,至870.19万t。受糖价上涨刺激,2015/16榨季国内制糖企业或实现盈利或大幅减亏,食糖产销率提高2个百分点至93%。由于进口糖数量减少,2016年5月后中国食糖去库存进度加快。展望2016/17榨季,预计种植面积将小幅回升,国内食糖产量估计为980万~1 000万t。In 2015/16 crushing season, the global sugar industry remained in the decreasing production cycle. The international sugar prices moved up considerably after going downward to hit the bottom. During2015/16 crushing season, planting area of sugar crops in China is about 1.382 7 million hectares, declined 12.40 percent from the previous season. Thereinto, sugar cane acreage fell drastically, but sugar beet acreage increased a little bit. Due to the comparative income of planting sugarcane was not high, farmers showed less willingness in planting and low field management level, which resulted in low yield and planting area decreasing. Thus domestic sugar production fell sharply by 20.03 percent to 8.701 9 million tons. Stimulated by rising sugar prices, domestic sugar refining enterprises either made substantial profits or reduced heavy losses during2015/16 crushing season. Meanwhile, their sugar production and marketing rate grew by 2 percentage points to93 percent. Due to the reduced import volume of sugar, the liquidation of sugar inventories in domestic market speeded up after May 2016. Looking forward to 2016/17 crushing season, sugar planting area is expected to increase moderately, with the total domestic sugar production estimated at 9.8 million tons to 10 million tons.

关 键 词：食糖 甘蔗 甜菜 生产形势 产量 价格 进口量 贸易保障措施 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]