中国省级地方政府债务规模预测——基于全口径财政收支框架的研究  

The Forecast of the Debt Scales in China's Local Governments——A Research Based on the Framework of Full-Dimension Financial Revenue and Expenditure

作　　者：蔡宁[1,2,3] 刘勇[4,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学博士后流动站 [2]国家开发银行博士后科研工作站 [3]国家开发银行研究院 [4]国家开发银行

出　　处：《金融论坛》2017年第2期25-34,45,共11页Finance Forum

基　　金：第59批中国博士后科学基金面上项目"基于开发性与商业性金融的地方政府债务与经济增长研究"(2016M590995)资助

摘　　要：本文通过预估中国30个省市的全口径财政收支,预测"十三五"期间中国省级地方政府的债务规模。研究发现:预测的全口径地方政府债务要高于财政部公布的实际地方政府债务;"十三五"期间,无论是经济向好情形,还是经济平稳、较弱情形,中国地方政府债务负债率都仅略高于30%,风险总体可控,但中国地方政府债务结构性、区域性问题突出,应当引起重视。Based on the estimates of the full-dimension financial revenue and expenditure of China＇s 30 provinces, the author of this paper forecasts the debt scales of the China＇s provincial local governments. It is found that the full-dimension local government debts are higher than the actual local government debts announced by the Ministry of Finance; in＂the 13th Five-Year Plan＂ period, the debt rates of China＇s local governments are only slightly higher than 30% whether the economy is good or stable or weak, and the overall risks are controllable, but the structural and regional issues in China＇s local government debts are prominent, which needs to be paid attention.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 规模预测 全口径财政收支 预算约束恒等式 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]