人民币占SDR份额与我国国际收支平衡的关系研究:基于国际经验的比较借鉴  

The Research on the Relationship Between the Share of RMB in SDR and China's Balance of Payments: a Comparative Study Based on International Experiences

作　　者：叶亚飞[1] 石建勋[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2017年第2期36-44,共9页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文从理论和实证双重视角分析国际化货币占SDR份额变动与本币国国际收支间的关系,研究发现不同国际化阶段的货币占SDR份额变动对本币国国际收支差额变动影响迥异。具体而言,美元份额变动影响最小,欧元份额变动会带来较大的正向影响,英镑份额变动影响较为反复,而日元份额变动的负向影响要大于正向影响;基于国际化货币的经验,分析人民币占SDR份额变动对我国国际收支平衡模式选择的影响,并假设人民币占SDR份额逐步提升至20%、30%、40%时我国国际收支可能面临的情景与压力,进而提出在当前金融环境中,我国应谨慎提升人民币占SDR份额,稳步推进人民币国际化,构建市场化的国际收支平衡调节机制,积极推动扩大SDR使用规范和范围。This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the relationship between the share change of international currency in SDR and the balance of payments,and finds that this relationship is influenced by the internationalization phase of the currency.In particular,changes in the US dollar share have minimal impact,changes in the Euro share will have a greater positive impact,and the impact of changes in pound share is more iterative,while the negative impact of changes in the Yen share is greater than the positive impact of that.Based on the experience of international currency,this paper analyzes the influence of the share of RMB in SDR on China's balance of payments model,and assumes that China's balance of payments may face scenarios and pressures when the share of RMB in SDR gradually increased to 20%,30%,40%,and then puts forward China's policy options in the current financial environment such as increasing the share of RMB in SDR cautiously,pushing forward the internationalization of the RMB steadily,constructing a market-oriented balance of payments mechanism,promoting to expand SDR usage specifications and scope actively.

关 键 词：人民币占SDR份额 国际收支平衡 国际经验 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]