我国与“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家农产品进口贸易研究  

Research on China's Agricultural Products Import between China and Countries alongside the “Silk Road Economic Belt”

作　　者：王瑞[1] 王永龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大红鹰学院金融贸易学院,浙江宁波315175

出　　处：《经济学家》2017年第4期97-104,共8页Economist

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"农产品贸易边际测度及出口农产品转型升级问题研究"(71173193);浙江省社科规划课题"浙江加快服务业转型升级的对策研究:国际经验与省际比较"(11YD11YBM);浙江省社科研究重点基地项目"浙江省‘海上丝路’服务贸易新增长点培育研究"(2015JDN04)

摘　　要：本文在分析我国与"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家农产品进口贸易现状后,基于随机前沿引力模型研究了农产品进口贸易潜力及其影响因素。研究认为,中国对沿线国家农产品进口贸易效率不断上升,而贸易非效率因素是造成实际贸易规模和贸易潜力差异的主要因素。我国人均GDP、人口规模对农产品进口贸易促进作用远超伙伴国,距离因素仍是阻碍贸易发展的主要因素,关税负面影响显著。值得关注的是出口国货币、金融自由度越高反而降低了贸易效率。坚持WTO框架下的多边贸易谈判,提高海洋运输效率,出口国政治局势稳定都有助于提高贸易潜力。另外,通过对比发现印度、意大利、土耳其等一些国家的贸易潜力值得挖掘。After analyzing the current situation of China＇s agricultural products import trade along the ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂, this paper studies the potential of agricultural products import trade and its influencing factors based on stochastic fron- tier gravity model. Researches show that import trade efficiency of China＇ s agricultural products along the belt continues to rise, and non-efficiency factors are the main reasons that cause the difference of the actual trade scale and trade potential. Mean-while, China＇s per capita GDP and population size make far more contributions to the import trade of agriculture products than the partner countries, distance is still the main factor that hinders trade development, and tariffs have obvious negative impacts. It is noteworthy that the exporter＇s currency, degree of financial freedom reduces the trade efficiency on the contrary. Sticking to multilateral trade negotiations under the WTO framework, improving the efficiency of maritime transport, and stabilizing the political situation in the exporting countries are conducive to improve trade potential. In addition, through comparison, this paper finds that the trade potential of India, Italy, Turkey and some other countries is worth digging.

关 键 词：丝绸之路经济带 贸易效率 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]