基于Mann-Kendall和R/S法的水文序列变化趋势分析——以苏州市为例  

Mann-Kendall and R/S methods combined-analysis on changing trend of hydrological series——a case of Suzhou

作　　者：杨金艳[1] 赵超[2] 刘光生[2] 徐勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局苏州分局,江苏苏州215000 [2]厦门理工学院环境科学与工程学院,福建厦门361024

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2017年第2期27-30,137,共5页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50909084);苏州市民生科技项目(55201619);福建省自然科学基金(2015J05114);厦门市科技局项目(3502Z20150051)

摘　　要：由于Mann-Kendall法和R/S法均无法独立获取水文序列过去及未来的变化趋势,本文尝试将其相结合。针对苏州市水文历史数据,利用Mann-Kendall法分析水文序列过去的变化趋势、R/S法获取其分形特征,预测苏州市水资源未来趋势特征,并利用弹性系数法定量评估气候变化和人类活动对水资源变化的影响贡献率。结果表明:苏州市水资源量在过去的60年以及未来均呈现上升趋势,且在1979年发生突变;苏州市气候变化是径流变化的主要驱动因子,贡献率达到87%,人类活动的贡献率为13%。掌握苏州市水资源变化趋势可为苏州市水资源合理开发利用和海绵城市建设提供决策依据。As both Mann-Kendall and R/S methods are unable to get the past and future changing trends of the hydrological series independently,they are trialled to be combined herein.Aiming at the water resources data of Suzhou,the changing trend of the hydrological series therein is analyzed with the method of Mann-Kendall,while its fractal characteristics is obtained by R/S method for predicting the characteristics of the future trend of the water resources in Suzhou,and then the contribution ratios from the climate change and the human activity on the change of water resources are quantitatively evaluated with elastic coefficient method.The result shows that the volume of water resources in Suzhou presents an upward trend for both the past 60 years and the future; moreover,an abrupt change occurred in 1979.The climate change is main driving factor for the runoff change with the contribution ratio of over 87%,while contribution ratio from the human activity is only 13%.Mastering the changing trend of the water resources in Suzhou can provide the decision bases for both the reasonable development and utilization of water resources and the sponge city construction for Suzhou.

关 键 词：水资源变化 R/S法 MANN-KENDALL法 弹性系数法 水文预测 开发利用 海绵城市 江苏省苏州市 

分 类 号：TV672.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]