进出口产品多样化对产出波动的影响——基于中国制造业的经验研究  

The Effect of Import and Export Product Diversification on Output Fluctuation——An Empirical Study on China's Manufacture

作　　者：陈蓉[1] CHEN Rong(School of Business , Minnan Normal University, Zhangzhou 363000, China)

机构地区：[1]闽南师范大学商学院,福建漳州363000

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2017年第2期14-21,共8页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(16BJY122);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(16YJAGAT001);福建省社会科学规划项目(FJ2015B229)

摘　　要：进出口产品多样化可以减轻贸易条件波动、分散风险和发挥"国际保险体系"效应,从而对产出波动产生平抑作用。基于面板门槛模型实证检验不同进出口产品多样化水平下贸易开放对中国制造业产出波动的影响,研究结果表明:贸易开放影响制造业产出波动的方向和程度存在产品多样化门槛效应,当进口产品多样化水平越过最高门槛值后,贸易开放对产出波动将起到平抑作用。但是,出口产品多样化尚未有效缓解贸易开放对制造业产出波动的冲击。基于上述研究结论,得到如下政策启示:第一,实行积极的进口种类扩张政策,充分发挥进口产品多样化对产出波动的平抑作用。第二,调整高度依赖传统比较优势的出口增长模式,提高出口产品多样化的质量和效益。Import and export product diversification can relieve terms of trade fluctuation, diversify risk and play the role of ＂international insurance system＂, thus alleviate the negative influence on output fluctuation brought by trade opening up. Based on China＇ s manufacture panel data,This paper carried out empirical tests on how trade openness with different import and export product diversification level influence output fluctuation by using panel threshold model. The results showed that： the impacts of trade opening up on output fluctuation have threshold effect of product diversification. Trade opening up has a repressing effect on product fluctuation when import product diversification beyond the highest threshold value. But export product diversification still cannot effectively alleviate the influence on output fluctuation caused by trade opening up. Based on the above research conclusion＇s this article received the following policy implications： Firstly, positive import category expansion policy should be cartied out in order to give full play to leveling of import product diversification on output fluctuations; Secondly, adjust export growth mode which highly dependent on the traditional comparative advantages, improve the quality and efficiency of export product diversification.

关 键 词：进出口产品多样化 贸易开放 产出波动 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]