1961-2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析  

Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate over period of 1961-2014 in China

作　　者：胡琦[1,2] 董蓓[1,2] 潘学标[1,2] 姜会飞[1] 潘志华[1,2] 乔宇[1] 邵长秀[1,2] 丁梦琳 尹紫薇[1] 胡莉婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]农业部武川农业环境科学观测实验站,呼和浩特011700

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2017年第6期124-132,F0003,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300105;2016YFD0300106);国家自然科学基金项目(41271053)

摘　　要：利用全国701个气象站点1961-2014年逐日地面观测资料,基于降水量和参考作物蒸散量(ET_0)计算的湿润指数研究了近54a中国干湿气候时空变化特征,并利用敏感性和贡献率法分析了气候变化背景下主要气象因子对ET_0的影响,对干湿气候变化的成因进行了探讨。结果表明:全国气候在3个时间段(时段1:1961-1980;时段2:1981-2000;时段3:2001-2014)中经历了变湿到变干的过程;不同地区干湿状况变化差异很大,干旱趋势主要发生在中国的半干旱半湿润气候区;1961-2014年降水量变化趋势不显著,ET_0呈显著下降的趋势,61.6%的站点出现"蒸发悖论"现象。南方大部分地区和新疆的西北部由于降水量增加和ET_0减少,气候变湿;西北和西南大部分地区由于年降水量减少和ET_0增加,气候呈显著变干的趋势。ET_0对相对湿度的变化最敏感,风速的负贡献率是引起ET_0变化的主导因子。研究时段内风速和日照时数的减少对ET_0的负效应超过温度上升对ET_0的增大作用,导致全国ET_0总体呈下降趋势。Global warming has caused non uniform changes in precipitation intensity and distribution,which will inevitable impact on the wet and dry climate.In order to make clear the distribution of dry-wet climate zone and its changes occurred in recent 54 years,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of dry and wet climate in China over the period from 1961 to 2014,studied the influences of main meteorological factors on ET0 by using the sensitivity and contribution rate method,and discussed the probable causes for the dry-wet climate variation.In this study,701 meteorological stations with 54-year data record were selected in China（Excluding Taiwan,Hongkong and Macao）.ET0 was calculated by using Penman-Monteith method.The data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data SharingService Network,including daily mean,maximum and minimum temperature at 2 m height,relative humidity,sunshine hours,wind speed at 10m height,precipitation and atmospheric pressure.The data processing,including ET0,climate trend,sensitivity coefficient,and contribution rate were achieved by using Matlab2014 software.Spatial analysis was also carried out to study the regional trends at decadal and annual scales.All spatial distribution maps were constructed using the inverse distance weighting interpolation method embedded in the Arc GIS 10.1 software package with a grid cell size of 0.02°（about 2 km）.The results showed that the national climate exhibited the process of getting wet to dry in three time periods（period 1：1961-1980;period 2：1981-2000;period 3：2001-2014）.The averaged humid index for all stations had increased by 1.3%in recent 54 years with increasing trend rate of 0.002/decade,and 12.4%（n=87）of stations exhibited the significance changes（P〈0.05）.However,dry and wet conditions varied greatly in different regions,and the drought trend mainly occurred in the semi-arid and semi-humid climate region in China.These changes for dry-wet conditions were caused by the changes of p

关 键 词：气候变化 降水量 风速 参考作物蒸散量 湿润指数 敏感系数 贡献率 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]