加勒比板块多学科研究综述及其对地震预测的启示  

An Overview of Multidisciplinary Research on Caribbean Plate and Implications for Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：李玉江[1,2] 邵志刚[3] 季灵运[4] 陈连旺[1] Li Yu-jiang Shao Zhi-gang Ji Ling-yun Chen Lian-wang(Key Laboratory of Crustal Dynamics, Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CEA, 100085, Beijing China China University of Geosciences （Beijing）, 100083, Beiiing, China Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing,100036, China Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center, CEA, Xi＇an, 710054, China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所(地壳动力学重点实验室),北京100085 [2]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [3]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [4]中国地震局第二监测中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地震》2017年第2期17-31,共15页Earthquake

基　　金：川滇国家地震预报实验场项目(20150115);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2016010206)资助

摘　　要：2010年1月12日海地M_W7.0地震打破了Enriquillo断层近240余年的地震平静期,可能意味着加勒比地区新的活跃周期的到来。本文通过收集该地区地质构造演化、地球物理场、发震构造、震源物理、运动学特征及应力场演化等方面的研究成果,分析由于海地地震的发生所带来的区域地震危险性等相关认识的改变。通过对多学科资料的梳理,分析利用多学科研究成果开展加勒比地区地震危险性分析的基本思路,以期为未来的中国大陆区域动力学模型构建、地震预测预报研究提供基础参考。On 12 January 2010, the devastating Haiti Mw7. 1 earthquake occurred on the Enriquillo fault, which broken down the seismic quiescence lasting for about two hundred and forty years, suggesting the beginning of a new active cycle in the Caribbean region. In this paper, we firstly collect the multi-disciplinary results including the tectonic evolution, geophysical field, seismogenic structure, earthquake source physics, kinematic character- istics and stress evolution. Then, we explore the related cognition and its changes on the seismic hazard and others before and after the Haiti earthquake. Finally, we obtain the basic technological process for the seismic hazard analysis, according to the combing and a- nalysis of multi-disciplinary data. Generally, the implementation of work not only provides fundamental reference for the construction of regional dynamic model, but also earthquake prediction in China's Mainland.

关 键 词：加勒比板块 海地地震 动力学模型 地震危险性分析 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]