基于云模型的水库调度函数拟合方法研究  

Research on Reservoir Operation Function Fitting Method Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：刘志刚[1] 胡斌奇[1] 伍永刚[2] 成涛[1] 刘建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网湖南省电力公司电力调度通信局,湖南长沙410007 [2]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2017年第3期53-56,23,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51379081);国家电网公司科技项目(DKJS-13-00220)

摘　　要：针对水库线性调度函数拟合误差较大及模糊集等方法可能出现过拟合现象的不足,引入云模型将样本数据转换为可准确反映样本数据分布的定性概念,再通过数据挖掘算法得到水库调度模式,并建立云模型规则发生器拟合得到调度函数,最后以江垭电站为例,对比云模型规则与模糊集规则和线性调度函数,证明了该算法的有效性,可用于指导实际水库调度。Aiming at the shortcomings of the larger error by linear function and over-fitting by fuzzy set on reservoir operation function fitting,the cloud model was introduced to convert the sample data into qualitative concepts that can accurately reflect the actual distribution.This paper obtains the reservoir operation mode by data mining algorithms and then builds cloud model rule generator to fit operation function,which compared with fuzzy set rules and linear function by taking Jianyapower station as an example.The result proves the effectiveness of the algorithm and it can be used to guide the actual reservoir operation.

关 键 词：云模型 水库调度函数 调度规则 数据挖掘 拟合方法 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]