2000年以来黄河流域干支流水沙变化趋势及其成因分析  

Analysis of Recent Variation Relationship and Trend of Runoff and Sediment of the Yellow River Basin and Reasons Discussion

作　　者：柴元方 李义天[1] 李思璇[1] 王靖宜 朱博渊 陈莫非[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2017年第4期106-110,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB429002)

摘　　要：鉴于2000年以来黄河流域的水沙特征发生了较大变化,采用M-K检验法对黄河干支流主要水文站2000~2014年的水沙资料进行分析,探究了干支流水沙的变化趋势及成因,并结合Yamamoto突变检验法进一步判断出更可靠的突变点。结果表明,与1950~2000年相比,干流各水文站径流量的减小比例沿程增大,支流水沙的减幅均大于干流;头道拐至潼关间的支流是影响该河段输沙量变化的主要因素,而龙门至潼关站间,渭河对该段干流的径流量影响较大;经Yamamoto突变检验法诊断后,排除20个虚假点,发现黄河干流径流量和输沙量在2000~2014年间分别出现5、6次强突变,而支流突变点分布散乱,与干流间无明显关系;干流径流量自2004年后为增加趋势,其M-K值于2010年后突破临界值上限1.96;中游年输沙量在2003年前均为增加趋势,2005年后呈减小趋势且在2008年后均突破临界值下限。In view of large variation of water sediment in the Yellow River since 2000, M-K trend test were adopted to check water and sediment data of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2014 to explore the variation characteristics, trends and main influential factors of water and sediment in the mainstream and its tributaries, and combined with the Yamamoto test to further determine the more reliable catastrophe points. By comparing the water and sediment data in 2000-2014 and 1950-2000, the results show that the decreasing ratio of the hydrological station’s runoff increases gradually along the main stream and the decreasing ratio of the runoff and sediment discharge in tributary are greater than that of the main stream; the tributary between Toudaoguai and Tongguan station is the main factors influencing the variation of sediment discharge in this river reach. Between the Longmen and Tongguan station, the tributary have a significant influence on the runoff of the main stream. Besides, the Weihe river is the main influence factors. After Yamamoto test detecting, exclusion of 20 false points, it is concluded that the main stream of the Yellow River runoff and sediment discharge in 2000-2014 have five and six strong sudden change points respectively, while the distribution of the sudden change points are messy in tributaries of the Yellow River, and has no obvious relationship with the main stream; Based on the M-K test, the runoff of the main stream shows increasing trend after 2004. Since 2010, its M-K value breaks through the threshold limit 1.96. The annual sediment discharge of the middle reaches of the Yellow River all shows increasing trend before 2003 while shows decreasing trend after 2005 and breaks through the threshold limit -1.96 after 2008.

关 键 词：黄河流域 水沙变化 M- K检验法 Yamamoto突变检验法 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]