城市化、空间溢出与经济增长——基于空间Durbin面板模型的实证研究  

Urbanization Spill-over Effect and Economic Growth:Empirical Study based on Spatial Durbin Panel-data Model

作　　者：刘晓明[1] 刘小勇[2] 董建功[3] LIU Xiao - ruing LIU Xiao - yong DONG Jian - gong(Institute of Economics, Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences,Taiyuan 030006, China Guangzhou National Innovative City Development Research Center, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200455, China)

机构地区：[1]山西省社会科学院经济研究所,山西太原030006 [2]华南理工大学广州国家创新型城市发展研究中心,广东广州510006 [3]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济问题》2017年第4期18-23,共6页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：利用中国1986-2014年省级面板数据实证检验了城市化对经济增长的影响。运用空间面板Durbin模型,将城市化对经济增长影响的总效应分解为直接效应和间接效应。实证结果表明,城市化对经济增长存在显著的正向效应,纳入空间因素之后,城市化对经济增长的正向效应更为显著,且间接效应明显高于直接效应。这一结果表明,相邻地区城市化程度的提高会显著提高本地经济发展水平,城市化通过集聚效应和辐射效应对本地区和其他地区经济增长产生影响。因此,城市化过程中政府应充分利用城市化的聚集效应和辐射效应,引导城市集群发展,充分发挥城市化对经济增长的推动作用。Using China＇ s provincial panel data during the period from 1986 to 2014, this paper investigates the effect of urbanization on economic growth. The total effect is divided into direct effect and indirect effect through spatial effect using spatial Durbin panel data model. It indicates that urbanization has significant positive effect on economic growth and the total effect becomes bigger when spatial effect included. We also find that the indirect effect is bigger than direct effect and the improvement of neighbor provincial urbanization level has positive effect on local economic growth which indicates that urbanization would impact local and neighbor area economic growth through agglomeration effect and radiation effect. So government should fulfill the agglomeration and radiation effect to realize agglomeration development.

关 键 词：城市化 经济增长 空间面板Durbin模型 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]