新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征  

Decadal variation of potential evapotranspiration in Ebinur Lake oasis of Xinjiang

作　　者：谭娇[1,2] 丁建丽[1,2] 董煜[3] 杨爱霞[1,2] 张喆[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2017年第5期143-148,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：自治区科技支疆项目(201591101);自治区重点实验室专项基金(2016D03001;2014KL005);国家自然科学基金(U1303381;41261090;41161063);教育部促进与美大地区科研合作与高层次人才培养项目

摘　　要：潜在蒸散量在研究气候变化、监测农业旱情、提高农业水资源利用率等方面得到广泛应用。为研究新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征,该文使用1960—2013年艾比湖绿洲地区4个气象站点的数据,通过Penman-Monteith公式计算年和季节潜在蒸散量,利用Cramer突变检验分析和相关性分析与贡献率计算其特征变化。结果表明:1)20世纪90年代的潜在蒸散量在研究时间尺度中达到最低,自2000年后开始增加。春季、夏季、秋季的潜在蒸散量与年潜在蒸散量变化趋势一致,冬季无明显变化;2)通过Cramer法检验表明,春、夏、秋潜在蒸散量3季突变时间分别为1999年、1996年、1999年,冬季不存在突变,总体而言,潜在蒸散量突变均出现在20世纪90年代;3)风速是全年及季节潜在蒸散量的主导因素。研究可为艾比湖绿洲区域的水资源科学配置、农业灌溉管理以及脆弱生态环境恢复提供依据。Evapotranspiration is one of the important parameters in hydrological and meteorological studies.Under the background of global warming,it is essential to accurately estimate the potential evapotranspiration（ET0）in arid and semiarid areas where the water resources are limited and excessively explored.In this study,we used the data of main daily meteorological factors such as temperature,relative humidity,wind speed and sunshine duration from 4 meteorological stations to calculate the ET0 based on Penmen-Monteith equation for analyzing the spatial distribution and temporal change in the ET0in Xinjiang Ebinur Lake oasis during 1961-2013.The Cramer mutation analysis was used for determination of the mutation point of ET0,the partial correlation analysis was conducted,and the contribution of the main climatic factors to ET0 was calculated.The results showed that：1）the accumulative anomaly of ET0 was positive in 1960-1989 and negative in 1990-1999.The ET0 was the lowest in the 1990s and then increased since 2000.As a whole,the ET0 in the study area decreased from 1960to 2013.The change of ET0 in the spring,summer and autumn was consistent with that of the whole year,and the change of ET0 in the winter was not obvious.The average ET0 calculated based on the whole year from 1960-2013 was 1 064 mm.The ET0 in the spring,summer,autumn and winter accounted for 29%,52%,16%and 3%of the total,respectively,indicating that ET0 in the spring and summer had the largest contribution to ET0;2）the ET0 mutation was in the year of 1997 based on the whole year data,in 1999 based on the spring data,in 1996 in the summer and in 1999 in the autumn.ET0 was decreased at a rate of-2.81 mm/a from 1960 to 1996 and then increased at a rate of 3.43 mm/a since 1997 to 2013.There was no mutation in the winter;3）the mean temperature,daily range of temperature,sunshine duration,wind speed,relative humidity and annual precipitation had different influence on the ET0.In the spring of 1960-1998,there was a high correlation between ET0 and wi

关 键 词：蒸散量 气候变化 回归分析 Penman-Monteith方法 艾比湖绿洲 Cramer突变分析 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]